10 Future Web Trends
10 Future Web Trends
What then can we expect from the next 10 or so years on the Web? As NatC commented in this week’s poll, the biggest impact of the Web in 10 years time won’t necessarily be via a computer screen – “your online activity will be mixed with your presence, travels, objects you buy or act with.” Also a lot of crossover will occur among the 10 trends below (and more) and there will be Web technologies that become enormously popular that we can’t predict now.
Bearing all that in mind, here are 10 Web trends to look out for over the next 10 years…
1. Semantic Web
Sir Tim Berners-Lee’s vision for a Semantic Web has been The Next Big Thing for a long time now. Indeed it’s become almost mythical, like Moby Dick. In a nutshell, the Semantic Web is about machines talking to machines. It’s about making the Web more ‘intelligent’, or as Berners-Lee himself described it: computers “analyzing all the data on the Web ‚Äì the content, links, and transactions between people and computers.” At other times, Berners-Lee has described it as “the application of weblike design to data” – for example designing for re-use of information.
As Alex Iskold wrote in The Road to the Semantic Web, the core idea of the Semantic Web is to create the meta data describing data, which will enable computers to process the meaning of things. Once computers are equipped with semantics, they will be capable of solving complex semantical optimization problems.
So when will the Semantic Web arrive? The building blocks are here already: RDF, OWL, microformats are a few of them. But as Alex noted in his post, it will take some time to annotate the world’s information and then to capture personal information in the right way. Some companies, such as Hakia and Powerset and Alex’s own AdaptiveBlue, are actively trying to implement the Semantic Web. So we are getting close, but we are probably a few years off still before the big promise of the Semantic Web is fulfilled.
Semantic Web pic by dullhunk
2. Artificial Intelligence
Possibly the ultimate Next Big Thing in the history of computing, AI has been the dream of computer scientists since 1950 – when Alan Turing introduced the Turing test to test a machine’s capability to participate in human-like conversation. In the context of the Web, AI means making intelligent machines. In that sense, it has some things in common with the Semantic Web vision.
We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of AI on the Web. Amazon.com has attempted to introduce aspects of AI with Mechanical Turk, their task management service. It enables computer programs to co-ordinate the use of human intelligence to perform tasks which computers are unable to do. Since its launch on 2 November 2005, Mechanical Turk has gradually built up a following – there is a forum for “Turkers” called Turker Nation, which appears to have light-to-medium level patronage. However we reported in January that Mturk isn’t being used as much as the initial hype period in Nov-Dec 05.
Nevertheless, AI has a lot of promise on the Web. AI techniques are being used in “search 2.0″ companies like Hakia and Powerset. Numenta is an exciting new company by tech legend Jeff Hawkins, which is attempting to build a new, brain-like computing paradigm – with neural networks and cellular automata. In english this means that Numenta is trying to enable computers to tackle problems that come easy to us humans, like recognizing faces or seeing patterns in music. But since computers are much faster than humans when it comes to computation, we hope that new frontiers will be broken – enabling us to solve the problems that were unreachable before.
3. Virtual Worlds
Second Life gets a lot of mainstream media attention as a future Web system. But at a recent Supernova panel that Sean Ammirati attended, the discussion touched on many other virtual world opportunities. The following graphic summarizes it well:
Looking at Korea as an example, as the ‘young generation’ grows up and infrastructure is built out, virtual worlds will become a vibrant market all over the world over the next 10 years.
It’s not just about digital life, but also making our real life more digital. As Alex Iskold explained, on one hand we have the rapid rise of Second Life and other virtual worlds. On the other we are beginning to annotate our planet with digital information, via technologies like Google Earth.
4. Mobile
Mobile Web is another Next Big Thing on slow boil. It’s already big in parts of Asia and Europe, and it received a kick in the US market this year with the release of Apple’s iPhone. This is just the beginning. In 10 years time there will be many more location-aware services available via mobile devices; such as getting personalized shopping offers as you walk through your local mall, or getting map directions while driving your car, or hooking up with your friends on a Friday night. Look for the big Internet companies like Yahoo and Google to become key mobile portals, alongside the mobile operators.
Companies like Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry and Microsoft have been active in the Mobile Web for years now, but one of the main issues with Mobile Web has always been usability. The iPhone has a revolutionary UI that makes it easier for users to browse the Web, using zooming, pinching and other methods. Also, as Alex Iskold noted, the iPhone is a strategy that may expand Apple’s sphere of influence, from web browsing to social networking and even possibly search.
So even despite the iPhone hype, in the US at least (and probably other countries when it arrives) the iPhone will probably be seen in 10 years time as the breakthrough Mobile Web device.
5. Attention Economy
The Attention Economy is a marketplace where consumers agree to receive services in exchange for their attention. Examples include personalized news, personalized search, alerts and recommendations to buy. The Attention Economy is about the consumer having choice – they get to choose where their attention is ’spent’. Another key ingredient in the attention game is relevancy. As long as the consumer sees relevant content, he/she is going to stick around – and that creates more opportunities to sell.
Expect to see this concept become more important to the Web’s economy over the next decade. We’re already seeing it with the likes of Amazon and Netflix, but there is a lot more opportunity yet to explore from startups.
Image from The Attention Economy: An Overview, by Alex Iskold
6. Web Sites as Web Services
Alex Iskold wrote in March that as more and more of the Web is becoming remixable, the entire system is turning into both a platform and the database. Major web sites are going to be transformed into web services – and will effectively expose their information to the world. Such transformations are never smooth – e.g. scalability is a big issue and legal aspects are never simple. But, said Alex, it is not a question of if web sites become web services, but when and how.
The transformation will happen in one of two ways. Some web sites will follow the example of Amazon, del.icio.us and Flickr and will offer their information via a REST API. Others will try to keep their information proprietary, but it will be opened via mashups created using services like Dapper, Teqlo and Yahoo! Pipes. The net effect will be that unstructured information will give way to structured information – paving the road to more intelligent computing.
Note that we can also see this trend play out currently with widgets and especially Facebook in 2007. Perhaps in 10 years time the web services landscape will be much more open, because the ‘walled garden’ problem is still with us in 2007.
Image from Web 3.0: When Web Sites Become Web Services, by Alex Iskold
7. Online Video / Internet TV
This is a trend that has already exploded on the Web – but you still get the sense there’s a lot more to come yet. In October 2006 Google acquired the hottest online video property on the planet, YouTube. Later on that same month, news came out that the founders of Kazaa and Skype were building an Internet TV service, nicknamed The Venice Project (later named Joost). In 2007, YouTube continues to dominate. Meanwhile Internet TV services are slowly getting off the ground.
Our network blog last100 has an excellent overview of the current Internet TV landscape, with reviews of 8 Internet TV apps. Read/WriteWeb’s Josh Catone also reviewed 3 of them – Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo.
It’s fair to say that in 10 years time, Internet TV will be totally different to what it is today. Higher quality pictures, more powerful streaming, personalization, sharing, and much more – it’s all coming over the next decade. Perhaps the big question is: how will the current mainstream TV networks (NBC, CNN, etc) adapt?
Zattoo, from Internet Killed The Television Star: Reviews of Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo, and More, by Josh Catone
8. Rich Internet Apps
As the current trend of hybrid web/desktop apps continues, expect to see RIA (rich internet apps) continue to increase in use and functionality. Adobe’s AIR platform (Adobe Integrated Runtime) is one of the leaders, along with Microsoft with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix is Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform and there are several other startups offering RIA platforms. Let’s not forget also that Ajax is generally considered to be an RIA – it remains to be seen though how long Ajax lasts, or whether there will be a ‘2.0′.
As Ryan Stewart wrote for Read/WriteWeb back in April 2006 (well before he joined Adobe), “Rich Internet Apps allow sophisticated effects and transitions that are important in keeping the user engaged. This means developers will be able to take the amazing changes in the Web for granted and start focusing on a flawless experience for the users. It is going to be an exciting time for anyone involved in building the new Web, because the interfaces are finally catching up with the content.”
The past year has proven Ryan right, with Adobe and Microsoft duking it out with RIA technologies. And there’s a lot more innovation to happen yet, so in 10 years time I can’t wait to see what the lay of the RIA land is!
9. International Web
As of 2007, the US is still the major market in the Web. But in 10 years time, things might be very different. China is often touted as a growth market, but other countries with big populations will also grow – India and African nations for example.
For most web 2.0 apps and websites (R/WW included), the US market makes up over 50% of their users. Indeed, comScore reported in November 2006 that 3/4 of traffic to top websites is international. comScore said that 14 of the top 25 US Web properties now attract more visitors from outside the US than from within. That includes the top 5 US properties – Yahoo! Sites, Time Warner Network, Microsoft, Google Sites, and eBay.
However, it is still early days and the revenues are not big in international markets at this point. In 10 years time, revenue will probably be flowing from the International Web.
10. Personalization
Personalization has been a strong theme in 2007, particularly with Google. Indeed Read/WriteWeb did a feature week on Personalizing Google. But you can see this trend play out among a lot of web 2.0 startups and companies – from last.fm to MyStrands to Yahoo homepage and more.
What can we expect over the next decade? Recently we asked Sep Kamvar, Lead Software Engineer for Personalization at Google, whether there will be a ‘Personal PageRank’ system in the future. He replied:
“We have various levels of personalization. For those who are signed up for Web History, we have the deepest personalization, but even for those who are not signed up for Web History, we personalize your results based on what country you are searching from. As we move forward, personalization will continue to be a gradient; the more you share with Google, the more tailored your results will be.”
If nothing else, it’ll be fascinating to track how Google uses personalization over the coming years – and how it deals with the privacy issues.
Conclusion
We’ve covered a lot of ground in this post, so tell us know what you think of our predictions. What other Web trends do you forsee over the next decade?
2008 Web buzz words
The Official 2008 Web 2.0 Buzzword Forecast
<a href=”http://oasc05024.247realmedia.com/RealMedia/ads/click_nx.ads/clickz.com/experts/brand/cmo/1367002120@Left,Left1,Left3,x30,Position3,x36,x25,x36,x37,x39,x40,x41,x42,x43,x44,x45,x46,x47,x48,x49,x50,x51,x52,x53,x54,x55,x56,x57,x58,x59,x60!Position3″> <img src=”http://oasc05024.247realmedia.com/RealMedia/ads/adstream_nx.ads/clickz.com/experts/brand/cmo/1367002120@Left,Left1,Left3,x30,Position3,x36,x25,x36,x37,x39,x40,x41,x42,x43,x44,x45,x46,x47,x48,x49,x50,x51,x52,x53,x54,x55,x56,x57,x58,x59,x60!Position3″> </A> New currents beget new buzzwords. In 2008, the “conversation” will certainly march on, but I’ll put myself out on a limb and predict we’ll see more than a little correction and a reality check on our sometimes overly romantic exuberance over Web 2.0.
Realistically, getting it right with consumers in the age of consumer control is no cakewalk. Facebook (of all sites) is learning this the hard way with the Beacon backlash, and Unilever Dove’s campaign is experiencing it via elevated transparency around the perceived discontinuity between Onslaught-centered self-esteem messaging for women and edgy Axe-brand messaging targeted at men.
Next year, we may well find troubleshooting our brands is as big a deal as promoting our brands (this is a big theme in my upcoming book, “Satisfied Customers Tell Three Friends, Angry Customers Tell 3,000“). In that spirit, I humbly offer my 2008 buzzword and buzz-phrase forecast:
- “Search moptimization”: Yes, that’s “mop,” as in to clean up. This is the increasingly common, if not essential, brand practice of attempting to clean up negative search results against general or specific brand-related queries. For many brands, particularly in the consumer electronics category, hostile CGM (define) is beginning to fill, even dominate, the organic search shelf, a zone that we all know has an unmistakable impact on the awareness and trial of new products. For many brands, the mopping process can take two to three years (often longer) and heavily depends on operational and product, rather than marketing, decisions. Dell, for example, still has lots of “search moptimization” to clean up Jeff Jarvis’s two-year-old mess, though it’s worth noting its customer service blog and IdeaStorm initiatives have already helped mop up or reroute some of the venom.
- “Wombagging”: This exercise tries to protect, or sandbag, your brand from negative or undesirable word of mouth (WOM). This could include anything everything from buying negative keywords on search engines to putting videos on your Web site featuring your CEO begging for patience and forgiveness. For some companies, wombagging might even include employing staffers in defense of bad buzz. But again, all this falls into the defensive branding arena, not outright promotion.
- “Friendiligence”: This will become very popular in 2008. It involves the extra layer of due diligence on friend requests on Facebook, MySpace, and all the me-too social networks popping up here and there. Friendiligence will also dial up as marketers oversaturate the social networking space with fan sites and more. Is this a real friend offer, or is it spam? Trust me, we’ll all ask harder questions, and some friend lists will start to shrink.
- “Converstations”: Brands now have multiple entry points for meaningful dialogues or conversations with consumers. These are essentially converstations. Brands fully immersed in CGM or social media may have dozens of conversations, from the consumer affairs interfaces and toll-free numbers to the corporate blog. They all matter, and every brand manager should know his or her converstations.
- “Social mediation”: This is the process of rethinking or renegotiating certain advertising, marketing, and communications practices as a result of user backlash. What took place with the Facebook privacy backlash was essentially social mediation, and Facebook’s own groups served as the third-party arbitrator between disgruntled users and Facebook (the company and policymaker).
- “We-bargaining”: A close cousin of social mediation, this is a bit more centered on brands and companies seeking peace, appeasement, or a lesser sentence with consumers when they screw up (particularly with viral, WOM, or CGM campaigns). It’s a tough exercise, because it typically pits a brand against the wisdom of the crowds. Richard Edelman did a very good job of we-bargaining after the controversial Wal-Mart blog incident last year. He was open, forthright, contrite, and resolved to fix the issue.. So, too, was the CEO of JetBlue when he posted his apology to YouTube.
- “Greenlashing”: Woe to the marketer who over-claims or over-promises benefits on the green front. The market’s just too transparent. Sites like TreeHugger, now owned by Discovery, are part of mainstream consciousness these days, and smaller green skeptics will vet out a green imposter faster than you can say “carbon neutral.” As the number of do-good green blogs increases, you can expect even more greenlashing about brand missteps in this area. Mya Frazier of Ad Age deserves credit for firing the first big warning shot against marketers’ bows on what she calls “greenwashing.”
- “Shamsparency”: Don’t get busted buying shills or engaging in unsavory activity. Just don’t do it, or the forces of shamsparency will catch up with you. It happens all the time, and firms in the CGM monitoring space (like my own) make it easier to uncover the imposters. My recommendation: avoid this term at all costs, and write the WOMMA ethics code on the whiteboard 30 times.
- “Credlining”: Credlining is when consumers sift the good from the bad, the credible from the discreditable, and publish a scorecard accordingly. When protesters of Facebook’s Beacon feed effort started posting lists of Facebook’s advertising partners, credlining was in play.
- “Facelifting”: This is the process of taking a hard look at traditional conversational touch points (“contact us” pages, feedback forms, surveys), and slapping on a friendlier, more empowering face that the usual run-at-all-cost one. Brands must think harder about the sincerity and believability of the invitation. How do you make consumers feel important and valued?
- “Blog groveling”: This is the already-getting-old process of sucking up to bloggers and key influencers to try, test, or sample your new product or service. Usually it involves hokey headlines, repetitive phrases, and an unmistakable hint of desperation.
- “World War 2.0″: Face it, the battle lines are calcifying around Web 2.0. Ambiguity reins supreme on “Who owns the conversation?” and “Who owns the influencer?” Sure, we all talk a mean game of cross-functional harmony, but war’s already erupting between the brand and IT departments, the PR agency and the digital agency, and, most important, consumer affairs and everyone else. Did I forget to mention legal? Top executives, meanwhile, fancy pitting one against the other in the impatient name of just getting it done. Expect to hear much more about World War 2.0 in 2008.
- “MicroTubing”: This is what’s happening in TV and video development. New content forms are proliferating and appealing to smaller audiences. Small publishers, even mom-and-pop players, will continue to make inroads into the video publishing zone, many getting snatched up by brands and publishers for ongoing content.
- “Lipsmacking”: This is process of talking trash about brands, services, or goods, usually with a digital trail.
The top ten marketing trends for 2008
- Time to go green
A “green” plan is no longer a luxury, or an option. Every day, another
venerable brand commits to a sustainable future. While there is much
“green washing”, rating services such as B Corporation
will set standards that will have major companies fighting to prove
their greenness. Expect to find a new seat being formed in the
boardroom: Chief Green Officer (CGO). - Ads in the great outdoors
This year’s surprise was the rebound of out-of-home advertising,
growing faster than any channel except the internet. Outdoor reinvented
itself as a technology-rich means of engaging, entertaining and
educating commuters. Mini Cooper tested RFID-activated billboards with
personalised messages aimed at Mini drivers, a customised approach that
linked old (outdoor) with new (online) transforming an integrated media
platform into a cult-building club. So called “narrowcasting” video
networks continue to sprout, enabling marketers to put their messages
in front of selective targets – from health clubbers, to deli shoppers,
movie-goers and pet owners to elevator riders. Innovations like these
will drive out-of-home advertising to new heights. - Getting in on the game
Gaming now permeates just about all of society, creating fresh ways for
marketers to connect. Millions of non-golfers are swinging virtual
clubs as Nintendo’s Wii transformed video games. Senior citizen centres
bought Wiis to entertain guests and connect with grandkids. MTV
invested US$500 million in online games, on top of the millions it
spent for AddictingGames. Even B2B marketers will be smart to give
gaming a fresh look while blending in messaging, training or recruiting. - Mobile: I can hear you now!
This may be the year in which mobile deserves a closer look as
technology improvements create new opportunities. Bluetooth-enabled
phones have made it easier for marketers to provide contextually
relevant information; the Air Force set up Bluetooth transmitters at
racetracks to reach potential recruits. Apple’s iPhone partnered with
Google and Yahoo to enable ad-supported programming. Cellfire enlisted
a million people to receive coupons for anything from burgers to
videos. Mobile marketing can deliver highly personalised, and useful,
information when and where needed and as long as marketers don’t spam,
mobile marketing may be the missing link in personalised communications. - Join the club
Wise marketers will capitalise on the growing appeal of social
networks. Besides the obvious market leaders (MySpace and Facebook),
social networks exist in niches from teens (e.g. Pizco and Tagged) to
seniors (e.g. Eons) to photographers (e.g. Flickr), do-gooders (e.g.
AllDayBuffet) and even B2B (e.g. LinkedIn and Plaxo). This list is
almost endless. Chase’s partnership with Facebook has helped make its
“+1″ credit card the card of choice among college students. Marketers
will be smart to create a social network, or take an existing one and
make it physical (for example, Second Life held its first offline
convention in 2007). - Rise of the widget
Mini software applications (known as “widgets”) can provide
unprecedented access to hard-to-reach targets, as Facebook and MySpace
can attest. Even Microsoft’s Windows Vista supports user-written
widgets natively. According to ComScore, some 220+ million consumers
were using widgets as of May 2007. For example, iLike, which allows
Facebook users to share iTunes playlists, grew to over 10 million users
in only 10 months. Slide, which creates slideshows and embeds them in
social network homepages, claims to be the largest personal media
network in the world, reaching 120 million viewers monthly. That’s just
the beginning of the widget avalanche. - Roll the video
With 70% or more in broadband penetration in the US, streaming video is
a “must” marketing tool. eMarketer reported that 123 million Americans
watch a video at least monthly, and three-quarters tell a friend about
them. Whether a B2B or B2C marketer, video is an enormous opportunity
to engage, educate and entertain (those being the new “Three Es” of
successful marketing). Lots of brands are producing instructional
videos to help customers install or use their product or service.
Others create pure entertainment, hoping to build brand affinity or
drive traffic. But the ubiquity of video is not without its challenges:
With 7 million hours of video online, getting through to the right
consumers requires high quality storytelling and judicious editing. - From behavioural to contextual
Marketers will add behavioural targeting to their contextual search
efforts. AOL believes in the future of behavioural targeting, having
spent some US$275 million on Tacoda Systems, which claims to reach 120
million people in 31 discrete audience segments each month. eMarketer
predicted that behavioural targeting will increase ten-fold over the
next five years, growing from US$350 million to US$3.8 billion in
advertising spend. A test that Renegade ran for Panasonic yielded 50%
more imminent buyers of a particular consumer electronics product,
making it far better than a simple search-driven strategy. - Focus on the experience
The need to focus on integrated marketing approaches is not new, but
what will be new next year is how brand experiences will move to the
top of the integration priorities list, becoming the driving force of
marketing communications. Events and online initiatives were once
treated as below-the-line after thoughts, but marketers increasingly
realise that interactive brand experiences can be far more effective
than advertising and should be the starting point of a customer
conversation. - Marketing as a service
For years, marketers have been more concerned with what they say than
what their target hears, resulting in seemingly endless monologues.
Those marketers who continually support their customers, providing
actual value through each communication, will be the most successful in
2008. The value exchange can take many forms, but only if the marketer
understands the needs and aspirations of the customer – and then
commits to a genuine dialogue at every point of contact. The HSBC
BankCab, which provides free rides to HSBC customers in New York City,
is one example of marketing as service, transforming customers into
brand evangelists with every free ride. Marketers who treat marketing
as a service and deliver real value to customers and prospects alike
will undoubtedly triumph.
Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2008
Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2008
Analysts Examine Latest Industry Trends During Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, October 7-12, in Orlando
STAMFORD, Conn., October 9, 2007 — Gartner, Inc. analysts today highlighted the top 10 technologies and trends that will be strategic for most organizations. The analysts presented their findings during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, being held here through October 12.
Gartner defines a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. Factors that denote significant impact include a high potential for disruption to IT or the business, the need for a major dollar investment, or the risk of being late to adopt.
“Companies should factor these technologies into their strategic planning process by asking key questions and making deliberate decisions about them during the next two years,” said David Cearley, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “Sometimes the decision will be to do nothing with a particular technology. In other cases it will be to continue investing in the technology at the current rate. In still other cases, the decision may be to test/pilot or more aggressively adopt/deploy the technology. The important thing is to ask the question and proactively plan.”
The top 10 strategic technologies for 2008 include:
Green IT. The focus of Green IT that came to the forefront in 2007 will accelerate and expand in 2008. Consider potential regulations and have alternative plans for data center and capacity growth. Regulations are multiplying and have the potential to seriously constrain companies in building data centers, as the impact on power grids, carbon emissions from increased use and other environmental impacts are under scrutiny. Some companies are emphasizing their social responsibility behavior, which might result in vendor preferences and policies that affect IT decisions. Scheduling decisions for workloads on servers will begin to consider power efficiency as a key placement attribute.
Unified Communications. Today, 20 percent of the installed base with PBX has migrated to IP telephony, but more than 80 percent are already doing trials of some form. Gartner analysts expect the next three years to be the point at which the majority of companies implement this, the first major change in voice communications since the digital PBX and cellular phone changes in the 1970s and 1980s.
Business Process Modeling. Top-level process services must be defined jointly by a set of roles (which include enterprise architects, senior developers, process architects and/or process analysts). Some of those roles sit in a service oriented architecture center of excellence, some in a process center of excellence and some in both. The strategic imperative for 2008 is to bring these groups together. Gartner expects BPM suites to fill a critical role as a compliment to SOA development.
Metadata Management. Through 2010, organizations implementing both customer data integration and product integration and product information management will link these master data management initiatives as part of an overall enterprise information management (EIM) strategy. Metadata management is a critical part of a company’s information infrastructure. It enables optimization, abstraction and semantic reconciliation of metadata to support reuse, consistency, integrity and shareability. Metadata management also extends into SOA projects with service registries and application development repositories. Metadata also plays a role in operations management with CMDB initiatives.
Virtualization 2.0. Virtualization technologies can improve IT resource utilization and increase the flexibility needed to adapt to changing requirements and workloads. However, by themselves, virtualization technologies are simply enablers that help broader improvements in infrastructure cost reduction, flexibility and resiliency. With the addition of automation technologies – with service-level, policy-based active management – resource efficiency can improve dramatically, flexibility can become automatic based on requirements, and services can be managed holistically, ensuring high levels of resiliency. Virtualization plus service-level, policy-based automation constitutes an RTI.
Mashup & Composite Apps. By 2010, Web mashups will be the dominant model (80 percent) for the creation of composite enterprise applications. Mashup technologies will evolve significantly over the next five years, and application leaders must take this evolution into account when evaluating the impact of mashups and in formulating an enterprise mashup strategy.
Web Platform & WOA. Software as a service (SaaS) is becoming a viable option in more markets and companies must evaluate where service based delivery may provide value in 2008-2010. Meanwhile Web platforms are emerging which provide service-based access to infrastructure services, information, applications, and business processes through Web based “cloud computing” environments. Companies must also look beyond SaaS to examine how Web platforms will impact their business in 3-5 years.
Computing Fabric. A computing fabric is the evolution of server design beyond the interim stage, blade servers, that exists today. The next step in this progression is the introduction of technology to allow several blades to be merged operationally over the fabric, operating as a larger single system image that is the sum of the components from those blades. The fabric-based server of the future will treat memory, processors, and I/O cards as components in a pool, combining and recombining them into particular arrangements to suits the owner’s needs. For example a large server can be created by combining 32 processors and a number of memory modules from the pool, operating together over the fabric to appear to an operating system as a single fixed server.
Real World Web. The term “real world Web” is informal, referring to places where information from the Web is applied to the particular location, activity or context in the real world. It is intended to augment the reality that a user faces, not to replace it as in virtual worlds. It is used in real-time based on the real world situation, not prepared in advance for consumption at specific times or researched after the events have occurred. For example in navigation, a printed list of directions from the Web do not react to changes, but a GPS navigation unit provides real-time directions that react to events and movements; the latter case is akin to the real-world Web of augmented reality. Now is the time to seek out new applications, new revenue streams and improvements to business process that can come from augmenting the world at the right time, place or situation.
Social Software. Through 2010, the enterprise Web 2.0 product environment will experience considerable flux with continued product innovation and new entrants, including start-ups, large vendors and traditional collaboration vendors. Expect significant consolidation as competitors strive to deliver robust Web 2.0 offerings to the enterprise. Nevertheless social software technologies will increasingly be brought into the enterprise to augment traditional collaboration.
“These 10 opportunities should be considered in conjunction with many proven, fully-matured technologies, as we as others that did not make this list, but can provide value for many companies,” said Carl Claunch, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “For example, real-time enterprises providing advanced devices for a mobile workforce will consider next-generation smartphones to be a key technology, in addition to the value that this list might offer.”
Tap McKinsey’s Brains for Your 2008 B-Plan
Tap McKinsey’s Brains for Your 2008 B-Plan
We like The McKinsey Quarterly, and today three of its consultants published a report on eight emerging technology trends they think will shape markets and economic growth in the coming year(s). These trends ought to inform your next business plan – or any new initiatives you’re considering for your current startups.We’ve compressed the lengthy report for your reference. Read the full text here. (Audio download is also available.) With each trend, McKinsey offers a caution. Pay attention to these. The second half of our post is a comprehensive list of the authors’ “further reading” resources. Paste it on your wall.
The authors begin…
Technology alone is rarely the key to unlocking economic value: companies create real wealth when they combine technology with new ways of doing business. … we have identified eight technology-enabled trends that will help shape businesses and the economy in coming years. These trends fall within three broad areas of business activity: managing relationships, managing capital and assets, and leveraging information in new ways.
A. Managing relationships1. Distributing cocreation
The Internet and related technologies … allow companies to delegate substantial control to outsiders—cocreation—in essence by outsourcing innovation to business partners that work together in networks. By distributing innovation through the value chain, companies may reduce their costs and usher new products to market faster by eliminating the bottlenecks that come with total control.
The Caution:
Companies pursuing this trend will have less control over innovation and the intellectual property that goes with it, however. They will also have to compete for the attention and time of the best and most capable contributors.
2. Using consumers as innovators
Consumers also cocreate with companies; the online encyclopedia Wikipedia, for instance… Companies that involve customers in design, testing, marketing (such as viral marketing), and the after-sales process get better insights into customer needs and behavior and may be able to cut the cost of acquiring customers, engender greater loyalty, and speed up development cycles.
The Caution:
But a company open to allowing customers to help it innovate must ensure that it isn’t unduly influenced by information gleaned from a vocal minority. It must also be wary of focusing on the immediate rather than longer-range needs of customers and be careful to avoid raising and then failing to meet their expectations.
3. Tapping into a world of talent
… Much as technology permits [companies] to decentralize innovation through networks or customers, it also allows them to parcel out more work to specialists, free agents, and talent networks…new talent-deployment models could emerge [and] changes in the nature of labor relationships could lead to new pricing models that would shift payment schemes from time and materials to compensation for results.
The Caution:
This trend should gather steam in sectors such as software, health care delivery, professional services, and real estate, where companies can easily segment work into discrete tasks for independent contractors and then reaggregate it … Competitive advantage will shift to companies that can master the art of breaking down and recomposing tasks.
4. Extracting more value from interactions
Companies have been automating or offshoring an increasing proportion of their production and manufacturing (transformational) activities and their clerical or simple rule-based (transactional) activities. As a result, a growing proportion of the labor force in developed economies engages primarily in work that involves negotiations and conversations, knowledge, judgment, and ad hoc collaboration—tacit interactions, as we call them. By 2015 we expect employment in jobs primarily involving such interactions to account for about 44 percent of total US employment, up from 40 percent today.
The Caution:
Tere is still substantial room for automating transactional activities, and the payoff can typically be realized much more quickly and measured much more clearly than the payoff from investments to make tacit work more effective. Creating the business case for investing in interactions will be challenging—but critical—for managers.
B. Managing capital and assets
5. Expanding automation
Companies, governments, and other organizations have put in place systems to automate tasks and processes [like] forecasting and supply chain technologies…. Now these systems are becoming interconnected through common standards for exchanging data and … this information can be combined in new ways to automate an increasing array of broader activities, from inventory management to customer service.
The Caution:
Automation is a good investment if it not only lowers costs but also helps users to get what they want more quickly and easily, though it may not be a good idea if it gives them unpleasant experiences. The trick is to strike the right balance between raising margins and making customers happy.
6. Unbundling production from delivery
Technology helps companies to utilize fixed assets more efficiently… Information and communications technologies handle the tracking and metering critical to the new models and make it possible to have effective allocation and capacity-planning systems. Amazon.com [has] expanded its business model to let other retailers use its logistics and distribution services [and] independent software developers … buy processing power on its IT infrastructure so that they don’t have to buy their own. Mobile virtual-network operators, another example of this trend, provide wireless services without investing in a network infrastructure.
The Caution:
Companies that make their assets available for internal and external use will need to manage conflicts if demand exceeds supply. A competitive advantage through scale may be hard to maintain when many players, large and small, have equal access to resources at low marginal costs.
C. Leveraging information
7. Putting more science into management
Technology is helping managers exploit ever-greater amounts of data to make smarter decisions and develop the insights that create competitive advantages and new business models. From “ideagoras” (eBay-like marketplaces for ideas) to predictive markets to performance-management approaches… Leading players are exploiting this information explosion with a diverse set of management techniques. Google fosters innovation through an internal market: employees submit ideas, and other employees decide if an idea is worth pursuing or if they would be willing to work on it full-time.
The Caution:
Leaders should get out ahead of this trend to ensure that information makes organizations more rather than less effective. Information is often power; broadening access and increasing transparency will inevitably influence organizational politics and power structures. Environments that celebrate making choices on a factual basis must beware of analysis paralysis.
8. Making businesses from information
Accumulated pools of data captured in a number of systems within large organizations or pulled together from many points of origin on the Web are the raw material for new information-based business opportunities… market imperfections include[ing] information asymmetries and the frequent inability of decision makers to get all the relevant data … allow middlemen and players with more and better information to extract higher [prices] by aggregating and creating businesses around it.
The Caution:
But that sword can cut both ways; today’s aggregators, for instance, may themselves be aggregated tomorrow. Companies relying on information-based market imperfections need to assess the impact of the new transparency levels that are continually opening up in today’s information economy.
McKinsey’s authors are: James Manyika, a director, and Kara Sprague, who is a consultant in McKinsey’s San Francisco office; and Roger Roberts, who is a principal in the Silicon Valley office.
FURTHER READING:
A. Managing relationships
- Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom.
- Henry Chesbrough, Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology.
- James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds.
- Eric von Hippel, Democratizing Innovation
- C. K. Prahalad and Venkat Ramaswamy, The Future of Competition: Co-Creating Unique Value with Customers.
- Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams, Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything.
- Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class: And How It’s Transforming Work, Leisure, Community, and Everyday Life.
- Daniel H. Pink, Free Agent Nation: How America’s New Independent Workers Are Transforming the Way We Live.
- Bradford C. Johnson, James M. Manyika, and Lareina A. Yee, “The next revolution in interactions,” mckinseyquarterly.com, November 2005.
- Scott C. Beardsley, Bradford C. Johnson, and James M. Manyika, “Competitive advantage from better interactions,” mckinseyquarterly.com, May 2006.
- Thomas W. Malone, The Future of Work: How the New Order of Business Will Shape Your Organization, Your Management Style, and Your Life.
B. Managing capital and assets
- John Hagel III, Out of the Box: Strategies for Achieving Profits Today and Growth Tomorrow through Web Services.
- Claus Heinrich, RFID and Beyond: Growing Your Business with Real World Awareness.
- Jeanne W. Ross, Peter Weill, and David C. Robertson, Enterprise Architecture as Strategy: Creating a Foundation for Business Execution.
- “Jeff Bezos’ risky bet,” BusinessWeek, November 13, 2006.
C. Leveraging information
- Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris, Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning.
- John Riedl and Joseph Konstan with Eric Vrooman, Word of Mouse: The Marketing Power of Collaborative Filtering.
- Stefan H. Thomke, Experimentation Matters: Unlocking the Potential of New Technologies for Innovation.
- David Weinberger, Everything Is Miscellaneous: The Power of the New Digital Disorder.
- Hal R. Varian, Joseph Farrell, and Carl Shapiro, The Economics of Information Technology: An Introduction.
- Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, Informatio
U.S. tech trends for 2008
[Editor’s note: This is an Op-Ed piece by Bernard Moon, an entrepreneur who blogs at Silicon Moon. It’s time to hear from an entrepreneur, as we’ve already heard from the VCs; see here and here.]
A couple of months ago, my wife and I visited Seoul, South Korea—a trip that inspired me to come up with a list of technology predictions for 2008 and beyond. The land that brought us bottle service, massive multiplayer online role playing, and paid online casual gaming serves as a good place to consider emerging trends—not just technologies that are on their way to the U.S. but also those the U.S. will export to the rest of the world. Here are a few predictions of what I see lurking on the immediate and not-so-immediate technology horizon.
Mobile videoconferencing reaches the states. If you’re a teen, the only thing better than gabbing on your cell with a friend is gabbing on your cell with a bunch of friends—and seeing each of them on screen as you do so. In Korea kids are doing just this—videoconferencing as they speak to friends via mobile handsets—and loving it. Since kids are kids everywhere, we can expect to see a similar response in the United States, though we probably won’t see it happen before the end of 2008. Unlike Korea—which has the only commercial WiMAX networks in the world—the United States doesn’t have the Mobile WiMAX capabilities required to stream video at 8 megabits per second or greater (16 Mbps or greater for downloads). In the U.S., you’re lucky if your cable modem service gets 6 Mbps—and a range of 2 Mbps to 4 Mbps is far more typical. When mobile videoconferencing does become a reality here, how will it impact handset manufacturers? Can we expect to see larger mobile phones and bigger screens as a result? Only time will tell.
Virtual currencies warm up. Content is not the only driver for sustainable online communities; virtual economics play an important role as well, with virtual currency serving as an increasingly critical tool. Virtual goods already provide a viable business model in online worlds—with companies providing outlets in which players can convert in-game assets into real-world wealth (and vice-versa). Virtual goods are starting to find their way into every other area of the Net as well—only now it’s not just about generating revenue but about paying people (in virtual currency) for their eyeballs. Virtual currency is already used to grab users’ attention for online product launches and games and could soon become a common feature in all online networks and worlds. As companies and services vie for user attention, we can expect to see more and more of them rewarding users with virtual coins or points that can be traded for cash or noncash goods and services. Worst-case scenario, we all turn into brain-dead mouse clickers obsessed with accumulating Yelp and Starwood points. Best-case scenario, we’re rewarded for our time and effort with healthy incentives.
Semantic Web slowly begins to gel. Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the Web of the future—in which data itself becomes part of the Web and can be processed independently of application, platform, or domain—is finally becoming a reality … albeit slowly. In 2008 we can expect the various filtering, aggregating, and grouping efforts to continue as the Web 2.0 services that initially captured our attention (such as Radar Networks and Adaptive Blue) expand and evolve. Now the questions become, how will data be organized? By advanced algorithms? By humans (no, not Mahalo)? And what format or tools will be used? Tagging? Grouping? Finally, what do users want? Friends’ feeds? Multimedia files? The latest books, photos, and gossip on Britney Spears? I believe we’ll see a couple of tangible and useful services take off next year (including some of the stealth startups I’ll be writing about soon).
Location-based mobile services gain ground. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker, 20 percent of mobile phones currently include the satellite-based navigation system Global Positioning System (GPS)—a number that’s expected to grow to 50 percent within five years. This means that at last a critical mass of end users has emerged for location-based mobile services that take advantage of GPS. Thus, we can expect to see a surge of activity in this area. I can visualize it already—my weight soaring as In-N-Out pushes me a coupon every time I get within proximity of an outlet, my credit card bills soaring as Nordstrom and Macy’s send my wife sales notices and coupons. It will be horrible; I’ll be dragged to these places more often. Forget it! I hate location-based services already!
Interactive TV makes a comeback. This won’t be like watching Evander Holyfield or Mike Tyson attempting a comeback—a one-time champ too old and worn out to rise to prominence again. Instead, it will be more like watching a boxer who debuted too early return and live up to his initial promise. This time around the infrastructure is actually cost-effective; the integration of the Internet and TV has created infinite collaborative possibilities; and new entrants (such as consumer electronics makers) are eyeing the market. Interactive TV won’t be a media champ; however, it will serve as an important secondary source for information, commerce, and social networking. Efforts such as Apple TV (which combines Internet content and television) represent the first step in Internet content being ported to millions of U.S. couch potatoes. With consumer electronics manufacturers eager to capture more of their customers’ mindshare, this represents a potential battleground for cable and satellite operators.
Watch for the trends I’ve spotlighted here to emerge in 2008 and beyond—and let me know what technology trends you see on the horizon.
