U.S. tech trends for 2008
[Editor’s note: This is an Op-Ed piece by Bernard Moon, an entrepreneur who blogs at Silicon Moon. It’s time to hear from an entrepreneur, as we’ve already heard from the VCs; see here and here.]
A couple of months ago, my wife and I visited Seoul, South Korea—a trip that inspired me to come up with a list of technology predictions for 2008 and beyond. The land that brought us bottle service, massive multiplayer online role playing, and paid online casual gaming serves as a good place to consider emerging trends—not just technologies that are on their way to the U.S. but also those the U.S. will export to the rest of the world. Here are a few predictions of what I see lurking on the immediate and not-so-immediate technology horizon.
Mobile videoconferencing reaches the states. If you’re a teen, the only thing better than gabbing on your cell with a friend is gabbing on your cell with a bunch of friends—and seeing each of them on screen as you do so. In Korea kids are doing just this—videoconferencing as they speak to friends via mobile handsets—and loving it. Since kids are kids everywhere, we can expect to see a similar response in the United States, though we probably won’t see it happen before the end of 2008. Unlike Korea—which has the only commercial WiMAX networks in the world—the United States doesn’t have the Mobile WiMAX capabilities required to stream video at 8 megabits per second or greater (16 Mbps or greater for downloads). In the U.S., you’re lucky if your cable modem service gets 6 Mbps—and a range of 2 Mbps to 4 Mbps is far more typical. When mobile videoconferencing does become a reality here, how will it impact handset manufacturers? Can we expect to see larger mobile phones and bigger screens as a result? Only time will tell.
Virtual currencies warm up. Content is not the only driver for sustainable online communities; virtual economics play an important role as well, with virtual currency serving as an increasingly critical tool. Virtual goods already provide a viable business model in online worlds—with companies providing outlets in which players can convert in-game assets into real-world wealth (and vice-versa). Virtual goods are starting to find their way into every other area of the Net as well—only now it’s not just about generating revenue but about paying people (in virtual currency) for their eyeballs. Virtual currency is already used to grab users’ attention for online product launches and games and could soon become a common feature in all online networks and worlds. As companies and services vie for user attention, we can expect to see more and more of them rewarding users with virtual coins or points that can be traded for cash or noncash goods and services. Worst-case scenario, we all turn into brain-dead mouse clickers obsessed with accumulating Yelp and Starwood points. Best-case scenario, we’re rewarded for our time and effort with healthy incentives.
Semantic Web slowly begins to gel. Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the Web of the future—in which data itself becomes part of the Web and can be processed independently of application, platform, or domain—is finally becoming a reality … albeit slowly. In 2008 we can expect the various filtering, aggregating, and grouping efforts to continue as the Web 2.0 services that initially captured our attention (such as Radar Networks and Adaptive Blue) expand and evolve. Now the questions become, how will data be organized? By advanced algorithms? By humans (no, not Mahalo)? And what format or tools will be used? Tagging? Grouping? Finally, what do users want? Friends’ feeds? Multimedia files? The latest books, photos, and gossip on Britney Spears? I believe we’ll see a couple of tangible and useful services take off next year (including some of the stealth startups I’ll be writing about soon).
Location-based mobile services gain ground. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker, 20 percent of mobile phones currently include the satellite-based navigation system Global Positioning System (GPS)—a number that’s expected to grow to 50 percent within five years. This means that at last a critical mass of end users has emerged for location-based mobile services that take advantage of GPS. Thus, we can expect to see a surge of activity in this area. I can visualize it already—my weight soaring as In-N-Out pushes me a coupon every time I get within proximity of an outlet, my credit card bills soaring as Nordstrom and Macy’s send my wife sales notices and coupons. It will be horrible; I’ll be dragged to these places more often. Forget it! I hate location-based services already!
Interactive TV makes a comeback. This won’t be like watching Evander Holyfield or Mike Tyson attempting a comeback—a one-time champ too old and worn out to rise to prominence again. Instead, it will be more like watching a boxer who debuted too early return and live up to his initial promise. This time around the infrastructure is actually cost-effective; the integration of the Internet and TV has created infinite collaborative possibilities; and new entrants (such as consumer electronics makers) are eyeing the market. Interactive TV won’t be a media champ; however, it will serve as an important secondary source for information, commerce, and social networking. Efforts such as Apple TV (which combines Internet content and television) represent the first step in Internet content being ported to millions of U.S. couch potatoes. With consumer electronics manufacturers eager to capture more of their customers’ mindshare, this represents a potential battleground for cable and satellite operators.
Watch for the trends I’ve spotlighted here to emerge in 2008 and beyond—and let me know what technology trends you see on the horizon.
Internet business model in Chinese
1.在线广告；
最主要最常见的网络在线盈利模式，国内做的较好的是新浪（www.sina.com.cn ）、搜狐（www.sohu.com ）、网易（ www.163.com ）雅虎（www.yahoo.com.cn） 等门户网站（包括行业门户）。
新兴的在线短视频网站，通过影音载入前后的等待时间播放广告主的在线广告
典型例子：
国外的youtube （www.youtube.com ）
国内的56（www.56.com ）、土豆（www.toodou.com ）、六间房（www.6rooms.com ）、
偶偶（www.ouou.com ）等
2.彩铃彩信下载、短信发送、电影手机注册、手机游戏下载、电子杂志订阅等电信增值形式；
目前最赚钱的网络盈利模式之一，几乎每个进入全球排名前10万位的商业性网站和个人网站都在通过sp来获取经济回报，目前由于sp受到中国移动等运营商的限制，盈利率有些下降，以此类引力模式为主的上市公司市值较以前有缩水。
典型例子：
空中网（www.kong.net ）
3G门户 （www.3g.net.cn ）
Zcom （www.zcom.com ）
唯刊（www.vika.cn ）
腾讯（www.qq.com ）
3.通过网站销售产品；
A．通过网站销售别人的产品；
典型例子：
（B2C 和 C2C模式）
淘宝（www.taobao.com ）易趣（www.ebay.com.cn） 在线竞拍，从成功交易中抽取佣金。
卓越 （www.joyo.com ）当当（www.dangdang.com ） B2C
豆瓣网（www.douban.com ）营造社区，推荐销售抽取佣金。
B.通过网站销售自己的产品；
大多数外贸网站和国内中小企业网站，多不胜举
比如：起名类网站。
4.注册会员收费，提供与免费会员差异化的服务；
典型例子：
阿里巴巴（www.cn.alibaba.com ） 中国B2B 网站典范。
慧聪商情（www.hc360.com ） B2B
金银岛（www.315.com.cn ） B2B
我的钢铁（www.mysteel.com） 中国钢铁行业门户
中国化工网（www.chemnet.com.cn） 中国化工行业门户
配货网 （www.peihuo.cn ）
51 （www.51.com ）
5.网络游戏运营，虚拟装备和道具买卖；
典型例子：
网易游戏（ www.163.com ）
盛大游戏（www.poptang.com www.shanda.com.cn ）
九城游戏（www.the9.com www.ninetowns.com ）
久游（www.9you.com ）
及其游戏地方代理运营商。
6. 搜索竞排、产品招商、分类网址和信息整合，付费推荐和抽成盈利；
典型例子：
百度（ www.baidu.com ）
迅雷 （www.xunlei.com ）
中国商机在线 （www.28.com）
一网商机（www.e26.cn ）
当代医药（www.ey99.com）
58同城（www.58.com）
客齐集（www.kijiji.com）
Hao123 (www.hao123.com )
265(www.265.com )
3721（www.3721.com ）
请客800（www.qingke800.com ）
K68 （www.k68.cn ）
豆瓣 （www.douban.com ）
7.广告中介
广告联盟网站通过给为广告主和站长服务，差价销售广告，获得利润。
典型例子：
弈天广告联盟 （www.unionsky.cn ）
Iplus广告联盟（www.iplus.com.cn）
好耶广告联盟（www.allyes.com ）
窄告网 （www.narrowad.com ）
8.企业信息化服务
A .帮助企业建设维护推广网站
中企动力（www.ce.net.cn ）
铭万（www.mainone.com ）B2B+建站
城库 (www.chengku.com ) B2B+建站 (依靠红头文件开展企业信息化服务，这类有政府背景的网络公司不在少数，赚钱比起一般的网络公司容易的多)
书生（www.booksir.com ） 一站式服务，从代理销售网络实名起家。
B.代理销售大公司的网络产品
几乎每个网络公司都在做，不再举例。
C．网络基础服务提供
万网（www.net.cn）
新网互联 （www.dns.com.cn ）
新网（www.xinnet.com ）
中国频道 (www.china-channel.com )
商务中国(www.bizcn.com)
很多规模较小的公司也在做域名注册，服务器托管的生意，收入比较稳定。
D．网络营销策划和搜索引擎优化的专业公司
通王科技 （www.tongwang.com ）
冯英健 （www.jingzhengli.cn ）
9.其他盈利模式
盈利模式没有固定的，只有成功和不成功之分。现实网络中存在各种各样的盈利模式以及若干中盈利模式的组合。
总结起来，网站的盈利其实无非是，卖产品或者卖服务或者两者结合，区别是可能是卖别人的也可能是卖自己的
http://hi.baidu.com/c%5Fbotong/blog/item/3b2fdf5460c0d158d10906fe.html来源
Nokia’s new Cellular phone offering – Enhanced Mobile Browsing Experience
Nokia’s new phone sets the hot area for wireless service providers.
The Fact: High bandwidth and cheaper fees make it more attractive to connect your wireless device to web
The Chanllange: Limited computing power, shorter battery life and small display screen of your device
The Oppotunitity: Enhanced service that attracts customers to replace their computers with mobile phones, replace laptop computers with PDAs.
The Technology: Web2.0 enhanced websites that target PDA users.
Business Model: You can apply all the tricks used on internet
Then, all of us will have a cell phone that labels “Intel Inside”, “AMD Inside” or Microft Inside, or Google Inside
Cellular and WiFi on a device-based collision course
With national cellular wireless networks becoming more of a 3G data monster these days — finally — WiFi in all its shapes and forms is becoming just as ubiquitous in major metro areas, from local hotels and restaurants to covering entire cities. This begs the question — when do traditional cellular networks mesh with WiFi networks, since they are both datapipes for voice and data? How about right now.
We are seeing more UMA-enabled handsets from major vendors and my guess is that more handsets will feature both traditional cellular connectivity and WiFi access at the same time, for many reasons. But, will we see total convergence of the two standards? I doubt this, although supreme interoperability may be looming on the near horizon.
Nokia Mobile 2.0
Handset manufacturer Nokia has developed a platform designed to bring Web 2.0 features to mobile phones.Nokia’s WidSets platform is manufacturer independent and is supported by Java enabled devices. People today expect immediate access to information,” said Dieter May, vice president and head of Nokia’s Emerging Business Unit.
“We wanted to make it easy for everybody, from an individual blogger to a web services provider, to automatically have mobile access to website content. WidSets will also be attractive to new users who are not so familiar with Web 2.0.”
Collaborative filtering allows the community to enrich the WidSets Library by providing suggestions for new content. The WidSets User Interface employs a process of ‘choose and set’ that makes Widsets operative within seconds.
Signing up to WidSets is free and the platform is optimised for minimal data consumption.
“We wanted WidSets to be fun to use, so we based the user interface on great looking and dynamic mini-applications called widgets that automatically receive updates from websites that people normally visit several times a day,” said May.
“Whenever the information on a community, blog or news service is updated, the widget notifies the user so that the information can be viewed right away, regardless of where the user is located.
“And if users can’t find their favourite internet service on WidSets, they can easily create and publish widgets themselves and share the content with others.”
Source:vnunet
An overview of all cool wireless companies
SMS & MMS
Abbreviated as SMS, the transmission of short text messages to and from a mobile phone, fax machine and/or IP address. Messages must be no longer than 160 alpha-numeric characters and contain no images or graphics.
Once a message is sent, it is received by a Short Message Service Center (SMSC), which must then get it to the appropriate mobile device.
Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) (a newer standard)
Mobile365 http://www.mobile365.com/case_studies/sony.php
NeoMedia Mobile companies
12snap is an award-winning specialist for creative work and development in the fields of mobile marketing, mobile (CRM) and mobile applications. The company is based in Munich, Germany and has offices in Dusseldorf, London, New York, Milan, Stockholm and Vienna and an affiliated partner in Moscow. 12snap provides services to companies including McDonald’s, MTV®, Coca-Cola, Ferrero, Wella, adidas, Unilever and Gillette®. Press Release – February 14, 2006
Gavitec AG – mobile digit is a specialist in designing and manufacturing flexible and easy-to-use code readers for mobile marketing, mobile ticketing and mobile couponing. We are the pioneer and leading innovator in creating scanning systems able to read linear barcodes and two-dimensional symbols from mobile phone displays, and in developing code-reading solutions using the built-in camera included in mobile imaging phones. Press Release – February 21, 2006
Mobot is a leader in visual search and recognition technology designed to make marketing effective and innovative using mobile devices. Mobot connects consumers using any camera phone on any wireless carrier to brands, mobile content and commerce. Mobot gives marketers, content providers and carriers the tools to make it easy for any consumer with a camera phone to interact with their offerings. Press Release – February 9, 2006
qode’s ground-breaking technology turns brand-names and barcodes into hyperlinks to the mobile Internet. Web-enabled handsets with the patented Qode® software are able to take consumers – or enterprise users – direct to desired pages on the mobile Web, simply by clicking on a code with the handset’s camera, or by entering keywords or product codes in a search-style window. The handset is now your mouse and the brand name or barcode is now your hyperlink.
Sponge is one of Europe’s leading independent developers of mobile applications and content. The Company continues to experience rapid growth and profitable operations, as a premier provider of mobile services. Today, Sponge counts more than 40 agencies, including WPP, Aegis and BBH, as clients, and supplies services for over 100 world-class brands, including Coca Cola®, Heineken® and Diageo. Press Release – February 22, 2006
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P2P multi-level marketing
http://www.coremedia.com/en/88908/superdistribution/
OMA DRM Companies
—The ability to sell premium digital content for the mobile phone market represents a significant opportunity for nobile operators and content providers. Rampant piracy, however, requires that operators who hope to profit from this expected revenue growth have a viable Digital Rights Management (DRM) content protection system. NDS mVideoGuard, an Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) standards compliant end-to-end content protection system—server and client—provides enhanced security and flexibility of business models based on superior implementation and extension of the OMA standard.
See also
See also
P2p Pineer in music world
This is a pioneer. Although their technology is still based on blue tooth, the business revenue model is very good and possible for impoementation.
Melodeo Unveils Peer-to-Peer Music Sharing Functionality; Users Can Now Pay for and Share Full-Track Downloads Legally and Securely from Mobile Phone to Mobile Phone
SEATTLE — Melodeo, Inc. today announced new peer-to-peer music sharing functionality with its Melodeo Mobile Music Solution. Available during the first quarter in Europe, mobile phone users will be able to securely send full tracks that they have purchased, from one mobile phone to another mobile phone via Bluetooth wireless technology. Melodeo, a Seattle-based company, provides music to wireless subscribers through its Mobile Music Solution. The Mobile Music Solution resides directly on the user’s wireless phone, allowing consumers to quickly and easily shop, preview, purchase/download over the air, and play and store full-length music tracks.
“We’re thrilled about Melodeo’s peer-to-peer functionality, because it is secure and all parties are compensated when music is shared. This makes it a huge win for artists, music publishers, record labels, operators and mobile phone users,” said Don Davidge, senior vice president, Melodeo. “We expect that as the service grows it will not only be a significant source of revenue for artists, publishers and labels, but will also bring music to new audiences. Ultimately, we anticipate that sending a song will soon be as common as sending a text message or making a call.”
Wireless Operator Support
Wireless operators are deploying Melodeo technology on their networks to offer their subscribers access to Melodeo’s extensive music library. With the service, consumers can easily purchase and download full-length songs directly from their handsets, over the air, to their wireless phone. Music tracks that have been downloaded via the carrier’s network can then be “super-distributed” via Bluetooth. Tracks sent via Bluetooth technology do not use the operator’s network bandwidth, and therefore represent a highly efficient distribution mechanism for digital music. Melodeo’s DRM solution fully protects the tracks in both download and peer-to-peer activities.
Many industry analysts see the mobile music market growing exponentially in the coming years. Jonathan Coham, analyst with the Radicati Group, believes that “wireless music delivery is the next logical step. For music labels and artists, the appeal of wireless music delivery is that DRM ensures they will be compensated for their work. Melodeo’s distribution model makes for a quick go-to-market strategy, which, combined with an innovative peer-to-peer approach, looks set to stimulate a strong level of interest in the industry.”
Using the Peer-to-Peer Feature
To use the peer-to-peer feature, users simply select a song from the play list of tracks on their mobile phone. They then send the full track to another user with a Melodeo-enabled mobile phone located within Bluetooth range. The song file, which is DRM protected, pops up on the recipient’s mobile phone and he or she can listen to a 30-second preview of the song. If the person likes it, he or she can easily choose to purchase it and the Melodeo server then sends a decryption key via the carrier’s network to unlock the song, and bill the purchase to the recipient’s account. The Melodeo peer-to-peer system will also be used to send music as a gift, with the charges billed to the sender’s account.
A sender who shares music with a friend may also be eligible to receive a reward from the operator after the friend purchases a certain number of tracks. For instance, after the friend purchases four songs, the user who recommended them or gifted them may be given a complimentary track of a song from the operator.
Quick, Easy-To-Use Solution
Melodeo’s Mobile Music Solution includes an extensive music catalog provided by Warner Music Group and other record labels. Finding songs or an artist in this catalog is easy with a patented “power-search” capability. With just a few keystrokes, users can quickly and easily access the music they want.
The Mobile Music Solution includes personalization of a user’s music catalog based on the user’s preferences. Intelligence capabilities enable the solution to discover an individual’s unique music preferences and offer customized recommendations to the subscriber.
Melodeo’s software incorporates the most advanced audio codec, aacPlus from Coding Technologies, which produces music files in the 500 to 750K range, significantly smaller than a typical MP3 file, in a solution that is downloaded, not streamed, saving valuable bandwidth. While phone memory varies by brand, users can expect to store roughly 75 to 125 tracks with 64MB of memory.
About Melodeo
Melodeo is entirely focused on the music mobile phone market. Melodeo, Inc. is a privately held company in Seattle, Washington, dedicated to creating software and services to bring music to mobile phones. The Melodeo Mobile Music Solution provides wireless operators and phone handset manufacturers the means to provide secure digital music to wireless subscribers in an easy-to-use, dynamic user interface. Recognizing the growing market for wireless content, Melodeo offers its easy-to-use distribution model that at the same time supports the Digital Rights Management initiative, securing artist and label compensation. For more information, visit the company’s website at http://www.melodeo.com, or send email to info@melodeo.com.
From business wire.
PeerBox P2P interface
PeerBox GUI.
Cascade Mobile P2p
Cascada Mobile now offers TAG referral distribution technology. Now this really isn’t P2P. They call it P2P because a user can use it to contact another user … but he has to go through their server.
Still, mobile P2P presents an interesting challenge due to the limited resources on a phone compared to a PC. Plus phones have different operating system and capabilities. Developers have to translate the display for each phone model. Designers either limit functionality so the app will work across a wide swath of phones, or more typically route the phone client into a server somewhere. This does the latter.
More on Cascada:
“Cascada Mobile, a provider of technology for peer-to-peer mobile content distribution, announced the Cascada TAG referral distribution technology. TAG provides mobile content publishers and developers with a solution to enable instantaneous referral of content between any mobile subscriber and their peers.
TAG works by providing publishers and developers with an API that is embedded into any J2ME game or application. Once a subscriber purchases and downloads the application, he can at any time refer or recommend the application to his peers by selecting the recommend menu option embedded in the application. The TAG system then takes care of notifying the intended recipients of the recommendation and determining the version and location of the application that will be compatible with the recipient’s mobile device and carrier.
The process of integrating the TAG SDK generally takes less than five hours, including testing. TAG provides flexibility on how and when a referral can be initiated, either from a game menu or as the result of an event in the application. Because the integration takes place in development, developers can match the “recommend” to a friend feature with the look and feel of the application. The SDK also includes reporting features in order to track customer referral behavior.”
Will Mobile Ads Work?
Will Mobile Ads Work?
Written by Katie Fehrenbacher- Posted Monday at 6:30 AM
Analysis
Advertising might be the salvation of content creators on the web, but will it translate to the small screen? That was the big question on everyone’s mind at CTIA last week. The optimists (read start ups) hoped that ads could catalyze the mobile content market, by offering consumers free stuff. And we all love free.
At the show Sprint Nextel said that it would start offering a banner ad service on its deck powered by mobile startup Enpocket. And MVNO Amp’d Mobile said that it will offer ad breaks in its video channels sponsored by Procter & Gamble. While mobile ads might have been a well-worn topic at CTIA, the market for mobile content and mobile ads is pretty nascent, giving startups like Enpocket hope that they can create decent businesses off of cell phone ads.
One of those hopefuls is San Francisco-based Mobileplay, and we met with the company at CTIA. The 20-person company’s service aggregates mobile media content, like news sites and weather reports, into an ad-supported free service that can be downloaded and accessed from a variety of smart phones.
Mobileplay CEO James Ryan is a former journalist and mobile media exec at AvantGo, an early mobile ad company, and said that the company is now working on raising a Series B that it’s looking to close over the next few months. The company previously raised a $2 million Series A funding last year from Rustic Canyon Partners.
Mobileplay’s service is pretty limited for now, with only around 35 content partners and a downloadable application offered via mostly Blackberrys’ and Treos’. But the idea is a good one. Help content companies mobilize and get a revenue share from advertising while the carriers are mostly sitting on their hands.
Other mobile ad companies like Third Screen Media, and Enpocket are building businesses off of helping content companies serve up banner ads mostly within their own mobile WAP sites. Think Double Click for mobile. AdMob, is a Sequoia Capital-backed startup that is creating an adwords type model for mobile, replicating Google’s web advertising model. mFoundry is another startup that has a mobile ad platform for content companies looking to offer ad-based mobile content without a subscription. mFoundry CEO Drew Sievers says that mobile ads even have the potential to significantly boost wireless data usage.
Of course he admits he’s drinking his own kool aid, but the conversation about mobile ads has come a long way over the past few years. Several years ago companies were clamoring about SMS-based advertising, which always seemed like a really bad idea. (That’s a pure ad in a text message form, not necessarily SMS-marketing, which has some interesting applications, especially when combined with print and TV ad campaigns). But with the mobile web experience getting a little closer to PC-based Internet browsing, the mobile ad market can now take a cue from Internet ad models—less intrusive ads for free service.
No doubt there are still major differences to consider between ads on the deskstop versus the cell phone. During a panel discussion at CTIA, Verizon Wireless COO Lowell McAdam said, “More than the PC the cell phone is a personal space. If customers get an ad they don’t like, we are going to hear about it. We are moving slowly on this.”
Verizon Wireless’ claims that it’s slow on ads out of customer concern, which, strikes us as a little ridiculous. It’s likely more about having control of the revenue from the ads, than any thing else.
Slow moving carriers might be the best thing right now for the mobile ad startups, though eventually some will end up making deals with major carriers. There was a lot of rumors at the show that Verizon would start an ad service similar to Sprint’s in the coming weeks. As for the startups, there will likely be considerable consolidation, and could even end up being interesting acquisition targets by Internet ad companies looking to offer a mobile component.
The question remains though, will an ad-based subscription-free content model become popular on cell phones to the extent that it has on the Internet? Or will subscription-based mobile content always rule on cell phones?
Comments and Trackbacks
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In a word: no, they will not work. The models that are being used to distribute mobile ads don’t cater to mobile device usage and in many cases hinder the mobile experience. Mobile ads work when they are not an ad in appearance and can dissolve some of the aspects of mobile computing that people take for granted. Clicking on an add, receiiving a text message, or downloading a reader that is ad supported won’t cut it.
If advertisers want to take advantage of the mobile space, they must give space to people to be people and then live within the personal rules of mobile computing. Its too fluid of an arena for it to be anyting near successful otherwise.
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No company wants to be the first. However, with Sprint dipping into the ad space, I am sure that their competitors will follow. As other markets have proven, people will be willing to deal with ads if they can save money. In addition, mobile content is how more and more people will get and share information. It only makes sense that the advertisers will soon follow.
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Let’s face it, Mobile Ads will suck.
http://www.bumpbox.com/?p=133
Reading anything detailed on mobile is painful enough, can you imagine having to now navigate through ads as well?
The mobile audience has to grow as well; the mobile web user base isn’t nearly as large as the traditional web user base.
