10 Tips for Startups to Partner with Sprint

Sprint executives might be licking their wounds this morning after announcing that the company’s profit fell 52% for the third quarter¹. But yesterday Sprint’s Vice President for Partner Development and Product Innovation Paul Reddick was more than happy to dole out advice to mobile startups at the IBF Mobile and Wireless Investing Conference in San Jose. Reddick is basically the gate keeper for mobile startups looking to do a deal with Sprint. If you have a mobile application you want on Sprint’s deck, you better start buying this guy drinks.

Sprint is one of the most aggressive U.S. carriers when it comes to data services and new applications. That’s being reflected negatively in the company’s earnings right now, but that also means sometimes Sprint is the first carrier deal a mobile startup can make. Reddick says his team has looked at 4,000 ideas this year, and he’s held this position for around five years — OK, so he’s more than qualified to give advice to a room full of investors and entrepreneurs.

During a lunch time talk, Reddick showed off a long list of services and technologies that Sprint is looking to find more innovation in, like mobile video and location-based services. But he highlighted the mobile UI, which he says has not kept up with the pace of application innovation. (If you’ve got good UI ideas, you know who to pitch.) Reddick also decided to play father figure, and dole out a list of advice to startups and developers on how to work with carriers — check these out before pitching the Sprint team:

1. Know thyself — consider your scope carefully and be specific of what you do that is better than everything out there.
2. Know if you are a mass market or a niche application — mass market is hard to get right, because it has to be popular to such a wide audience. But also if you’re a niche application don’t expect to be placed on the deck.
3. Educate objectively before selling passionately — carriers see a lot of ideas, don’t oversell it.
4. Admit what you’ve accomplished versus trying to sell what is really a work in progress.
5. Be specific about what you want from the carrier. And know what the carrier has deployed in the market — at CTIA he says he had a guy pitching him an application that they had launched three years ago.
6. Provide differentiation.
7. Adapt to new models — he gives the example of Sprint bundling applications with the handset, which he says is a risky move and a big shift for Sprint.
8. Leverage new capabilties — like WiMAX.
9. Avoid asking him why your application can’t be on the Sprint’s deck — he says he hears a sense of entitlement. Go off deck.
10. His team focuses on finding innovation that can fix technology and service bottlenecks. Keep that in mind.

From Giga OM

2005 Wireless Trend

Global mobile trend update 2005     META Group Press Release on ITWeb   Posted: 5 May 2005

The mobile market is maturing and struggling to find a growth area. Basic infrastructure has been deployed in most markets, with some high-speed data capabilities in major markets. Mobile operator consolidation will continue in most markets, and users must scrutinise operators and negotiate contracts with great care.META trend: Packet-switched mobile networks based on 2.5G (GPRS and CDMA 1xRTT) are available worldwide, and most industrialised countries will have 3G (W-CDMA and CDMA 1xEV-DO) built out by 2006/07. However, coverage, reliability and roaming remain challenges, with latency a problem for 2.5G networks, addressed somewhat in 3G services.In 2005, WiMAX (IEEE 802.16) wireless metropolitan-area networks will be adopted by service providers for backhaul and wireless broadband delivery, dramatically increasing local-loop competition and driving down access prices 10% to 20% per year (starting in 2006), while providing an alternative for enterprises interconnecting campus buildings. WiMAX will evolve to support mobility by 2008 and complement WiFi in multimode handsets, increasing available bandwidth to the megabit range; multi-megabit cellular service will emerge in 2008.Technology trends Voice is the most compelling application for mobile carrier networks, and carriers are attempting to grow the market via data services. The trend to leverage mobile voice as the principal voice line is growing among knowledge-worker-intensive organisations. Enterprise adoption of 3G data services (ie, offering capacities of between 200Kbps and 2Mbps) will remain limited until at least 2007. Voice will remain the dominant application in mobile networks until 2010 by volume, and 2008 by revenue. This trend will not change when packetised voice (eg, VOIP) will be introduced in future versions of 3G/4G networks. Even though the business case is unclear, operators have continued their 3G roll-outs in most markets. Competition from other wireless data alternatives will limit the potential for 3G – especially WiFi (2005+) and WiMAX (2007+). 3G services are starting to receive some market acceptance beyond Japan and South Korea, and the vendor hype for a next set of services has begun. Market buzz has already started around High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), “Super 3G” and 4G. While the demand for additional capacity is unclear – users are not buying what is already offered – what is needed is better integration between wireless services. Fortunately, 4G is mostly a collection of services combining existing technologies (including 3G and WiFi) with other kinds of wireless technologies like WiMAX and future evolutions of 3G/UMTS. As a result, 4G will be less disruptive and more widely accepted if the promise is delivered upon. 3G’s remaining problems are more focused on the business case and less about technology. The previous technical issues that slowed 3G’s roll-out (eg, lack of appropriate handsets, poor battery life, problems with handoffs to/from legacy networks) have been addressed. The remaining challenges are mainly commercial (eg, the structure of compelling and profitable offerings such as regional or global pricing plans and flat-rate versus usage-based billing). Vendors are centring on fewer wireless standards. In the 2007/08 time frame, networks will be almost exclusively based on either the GSM evolution or the CDMA evolution (see below). As mobile-operator consolidation continues, remaining entities will have to standardise on one of the two established standards to stay competitive. For example, Sprint Nextel is left with two competing technologies (ie, CDMA and iDen); we expect only CDMA to be supported beyond 2008. By YE05, enterprise-class handsets will generally be dual-mode 2G/3G, with specific variants by country and technology. For the GSM evolution (available in all countries in the world except eight; used by all operators in EMEA, some in the Americas and most in Asia Pacific, but not Japan and South Korea), handsets will support GSM, GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA, operating in five bands (850/900/1 800/1 900/2 100MHz). For the CDMA evolution (used by some operators in Japan, the Americas, China, India and Australia, as well as all operators in South Korea), handsets will support CDMA, CDMA 1xRTT and CDMA 1xEV-DO, operating in three bands (850/1 900/2 100MHz). In addition, META Group expects to see the introduction of multimode phones in various forms, with some versions combining GSM with CDMA, and some combining GSM with voice over WiFi. The GSM/CDMA combo will remain very niche and low volume, as it caters to a very small user population. Likewise, the GSM/WiFi combo will be niche until at least 2006 due to high price, technology challenges regarding roaming between the technologies, and the lack of a compelling revenue model for operators. Early integrated offerings (eg, NTT DoCoMo) are a difficult sell, due to both the upfront and the ongoing costs (ie, handsets not subsidised by the carrier, as well as high tariffs for off-net services). To combat the WiFi threat, carriers will adopt aggressive price plans with the goal of drastically reducing the potential savings with the dual-mode WiFi variant. Legacy data networks such as CDPD, Mobitex and paging are fading, and users need to plan for a migration to SMS, CDMA 1.x, or GPRS/EDGE by mid-2005 to avoid being trapped in an expensive solution with deteriorating service levels. Commercial and pricing trends META Group expects a continued 10% to 20% annual price decline throughout 2007 for voice calls, and 20% to 40% for data services. We expect mobile voice charges to be comparable to wireline voice by 2010. Coverage and technology are declining as differentiators, as there are only very small differences in coverage in the EMEA and Asia regions. Quality in the Americas and Australia will become less of a differentiator by 2006, as industry consolidation and network build-outs continue. Operators are changing their messaging to compete on service levels and price. The new 3G-only entrants are competing only on price initially, which drives down the price for services in 2/2.5G networks as well. Mobile data roaming (predominantly GPRS) has improved significantly during the past 12 months, but still has a way to go before becoming nearly as ubiquitous as voice roaming. Jump-starting wireless data is a paradox for the operators – pricing will remain expensive through 2006 (and beyond) due to low levels of enterprise adoption and low traffic volumes, even though data pricing is the principal barrier to increased traffic. International organisations are hurting from expensive roaming charges (2.5x-3x more expensive than in-country-of-subscription use) for both voice and data services. Multinational enterprises should exploit pan-regional pricing plans and aggregate their total buying power across the region (including wired voice and data networks) to get the best deals. META Group estimates that 80% of large international organisations will have centralised the procurement of mobile services and made the ITO (IT organisation) responsible for managing all aspects of mobility by 2006. Although the unit charges for mobile services will continue to decrease, the overall cost for mobile services will continue to increase, as consumption rises faster than the prices decline. Carrier offerings and new equipment make the move to wireless service as the only voice line for business users attractive. This is fuelled by vendors like Ericsson, Nokia, Alcatel and Siemens, concomitant with attractive rate plans being offered by mobile operators for companies that move a substantial portion of their voice minutes over to mobile voice. Most G2000 enterprises will continue to have focused efforts during 2005/06 to contain cost and refine usage patterns of mobile services. The primary vehicle is a well-balanced mobile policy, which is becoming mandatory during 2005. The mobile policy needs to be complemented with solid processes backed up with appropriate tools to monitor and enforce the policy. Bottom line: Competition for wireless customers will drive pricing down 10% to 20% per year through 2007. Users should centralise mobile-service procurement, understand usage patterns, control usage and aggressively negotiate mobile contracts. Business impact: Improved and less expensive mobile data networks enhance the return on investment of extending applications to an increasingly mobile workforce.

2005 Wireless Trend

Global mobile trend update 2005     META Group Press Release on ITWeb   Posted: 5 May 2005

The mobile market is maturing and struggling to find a growth area. Basic infrastructure has been deployed in most markets, with some high-speed data capabilities in major markets. Mobile operator consolidation will continue in most markets, and users must scrutinise operators and negotiate contracts with great care.META trend: Packet-switched mobile networks based on 2.5G (GPRS and CDMA 1xRTT) are available worldwide, and most industrialised countries will have 3G (W-CDMA and CDMA 1xEV-DO) built out by 2006/07. However, coverage, reliability and roaming remain challenges, with latency a problem for 2.5G networks, addressed somewhat in 3G services. In 2005, WiMAX (IEEE 802.16) wireless metropolitan-area networks will be adopted by service providers for backhaul and wireless broadband delivery, dramatically increasing local-loop competition and driving down access prices 10% to 20% per year (starting in 2006), while providing an alternative for enterprises interconnecting campus buildings. WiMAX will evolve to support mobility by 2008 and complement WiFi in multimode handsets, increasing available bandwidth to the megabit range; multi-megabit cellular service will emerge in 2008. Technology trends Voice is the most compelling application for mobile carrier networks, and carriers are attempting to grow the market via data services. The trend to leverage mobile voice as the principal voice line is growing among knowledge-worker-intensive organisations. Enterprise adoption of 3G data services (ie, offering capacities of between 200Kbps and 2Mbps) will remain limited until at least 2007. Voice will remain the dominant application in mobile networks until 2010 by volume, and 2008 by revenue. This trend will not change when packetised voice (eg, VOIP) will be introduced in future versions of 3G/4G networks. Even though the business case is unclear, operators have continued their 3G roll-outs in most markets. Competition from other wireless data alternatives will limit the potential for 3G – especially WiFi (2005+) and WiMAX (2007+). 3G services are starting to receive some market acceptance beyond Japan and South Korea, and the vendor hype for a next set of services has begun. Market buzz has already started around High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), “Super 3G” and 4G. While the demand for additional capacity is unclear – users are not buying what is already offered – what is needed is better integration between wireless services. Fortunately, 4G is mostly a collection of services combining existing technologies (including 3G and WiFi) with other kinds of wireless technologies like WiMAX and future evolutions of 3G/UMTS. As a result, 4G will be less disruptive and more widely accepted if the promise is delivered upon. 3G’s remaining problems are more focused on the business case and less about technology. The previous technical issues that slowed 3G’s roll-out (eg, lack of appropriate handsets, poor battery life, problems with handoffs to/from legacy networks) have been addressed. The remaining challenges are mainly commercial (eg, the structure of compelling and profitable offerings such as regional or global pricing plans and flat-rate versus usage-based billing). Vendors are centring on fewer wireless standards. In the 2007/08 time frame, networks will be almost exclusively based on either the GSM evolution or the CDMA evolution (see below). As mobile-operator consolidation continues, remaining entities will have to standardise on one of the two established standards to stay competitive. For example, Sprint Nextel is left with two competing technologies (ie, CDMA and iDen); we expect only CDMA to be supported beyond 2008. By YE05, enterprise-class handsets will generally be dual-mode 2G/3G, with specific variants by country and technology. For the GSM evolution (available in all countries in the world except eight; used by all operators in EMEA, some in the Americas and most in Asia Pacific, but not Japan and South Korea), handsets will support GSM, GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA, operating in five bands (850/900/1 800/1 900/2 100MHz). For the CDMA evolution (used by some operators in Japan, the Americas, China, India and Australia, as well as all operators in South Korea), handsets will support CDMA, CDMA 1xRTT and CDMA 1xEV-DO, operating in three bands (850/1 900/2 100MHz). In addition, META Group expects to see the introduction of multimode phones in various forms, with some versions combining GSM with CDMA, and some combining GSM with voice over WiFi. The GSM/CDMA combo will remain very niche and low volume, as it caters to a very small user population. Likewise, the GSM/WiFi combo will be niche until at least 2006 due to high price, technology challenges regarding roaming between the technologies, and the lack of a compelling revenue model for operators. Early integrated offerings (eg, NTT DoCoMo) are a difficult sell, due to both the upfront and the ongoing costs (ie, handsets not subsidised by the carrier, as well as high tariffs for off-net services). To combat the WiFi threat, carriers will adopt aggressive price plans with the goal of drastically reducing the potential savings with the dual-mode WiFi variant. Legacy data networks such as CDPD, Mobitex and paging are fading, and users need to plan for a migration to SMS, CDMA 1.x, or GPRS/EDGE by mid-2005 to avoid being trapped in an expensive solution with deteriorating service levels. Commercial and pricing trends META Group expects a continued 10% to 20% annual price decline throughout 2007 for voice calls, and 20% to 40% for data services. We expect mobile voice charges to be comparable to wireline voice by 2010. Coverage and technology are declining as differentiators, as there are only very small differences in coverage in the EMEA and Asia regions. Quality in the Americas and Australia will become less of a differentiator by 2006, as industry consolidation and network build-outs continue. Operators are changing their messaging to compete on service levels and price. The new 3G-only entrants are competing only on price initially, which drives down the price for services in 2/2.5G networks as well. Mobile data roaming (predominantly GPRS) has improved significantly during the past 12 months, but still has a way to go before becoming nearly as ubiquitous as voice roaming. Jump-starting wireless data is a paradox for the operators – pricing will remain expensive through 2006 (and beyond) due to low levels of enterprise adoption and low traffic volumes, even though data pricing is the principal barrier to increased traffic. International organisations are hurting from expensive roaming charges (2.5x-3x more expensive than in-country-of-subscription use) for both voice and data services. Multinational enterprises should exploit pan-regional pricing plans and aggregate their total buying power across the region (including wired voice and data networks) to get the best deals. META Group estimates that 80% of large international organisations will have centralised the procurement of mobile services and made the ITO (IT organisation) responsible for managing all aspects of mobility by 2006. Although the unit charges for mobile services will continue to decrease, the overall cost for mobile services will continue to increase, as consumption rises faster than the prices decline. Carrier offerings and new equipment make the move to wireless service as the only voice line for business users attractive. This is fuelled by vendors like Ericsson, Nokia, Alcatel and Siemens, concomitant with attractive rate plans being offered by mobile operators for companies that move a substantial portion of their voice minutes over to mobile voice. Most G2000 enterprises will continue to have focused efforts during 2005/06 to contain cost and refine usage patterns of mobile services. The primary vehicle is a well-balanced mobile policy, which is becoming mandatory during 2005. The mobile policy needs to be complemented with solid processes backed up with appropriate tools to monitor and enforce the policy. Bottom line: Competition for wireless customers will drive pricing down 10% to 20% per year through 2007. Users should centralise mobile-service procurement, understand usage patterns, control usage and aggressively negotiate mobile contracts. Business impact: Improved and less expensive mobile data networks enhance the return on investment of extending applications to an increasingly mobile workforce.

Will Mobile Ads Work?

Will Mobile Ads Work?

Written by Katie Fehrenbacher- Posted Monday at 6:30 AM

Analysis

Advertising might be the salvation of content creators on the web, but will it translate to the small screen? That was the big question on everyone’s mind at CTIA last week. The optimists (read start ups) hoped that ads could catalyze the mobile content market, by offering consumers free stuff. And we all love free.

At the show Sprint Nextel said that it would start offering a banner ad service on its deck powered by mobile startup Enpocket. And MVNO Amp’d Mobile said that it will offer ad breaks in its video channels sponsored by Procter & Gamble. While mobile ads might have been a well-worn topic at CTIA, the market for mobile content and mobile ads is pretty nascent, giving startups like Enpocket hope that they can create decent businesses off of cell phone ads.

One of those hopefuls is San Francisco-based Mobileplay, and we met with the company at CTIA. The 20-person company’s service aggregates mobile media content, like news sites and weather reports, into an ad-supported free service that can be downloaded and accessed from a variety of smart phones.

Mobileplay CEO James Ryan is a former journalist and mobile media exec at AvantGo, an early mobile ad company, and said that the company is now working on raising a Series B that it’s looking to close over the next few months. The company previously raised a $2 million Series A funding last year from Rustic Canyon Partners.

Mobileplay’s service is pretty limited for now, with only around 35 content partners and a downloadable application offered via mostly Blackberrys’ and Treos’. But the idea is a good one. Help content companies mobilize and get a revenue share from advertising while the carriers are mostly sitting on their hands.

Other mobile ad companies like Third Screen Media, and Enpocket are building businesses off of helping content companies serve up banner ads mostly within their own mobile WAP sites. Think Double Click for mobile. AdMob, is a Sequoia Capital-backed startup that is creating an adwords type model for mobile, replicating Google’s web advertising model. mFoundry is another startup that has a mobile ad platform for content companies looking to offer ad-based mobile content without a subscription. mFoundry CEO Drew Sievers says that mobile ads even have the potential to significantly boost wireless data usage.

Of course he admits he’s drinking his own kool aid, but the conversation about mobile ads has come a long way over the past few years. Several years ago companies were clamoring about SMS-based advertising, which always seemed like a really bad idea. (That’s a pure ad in a text message form, not necessarily SMS-marketing, which has some interesting applications, especially when combined with print and TV ad campaigns). But with the mobile web experience getting a little closer to PC-based Internet browsing, the mobile ad market can now take a cue from Internet ad models—less intrusive ads for free service.

No doubt there are still major differences to consider between ads on the deskstop versus the cell phone. During a panel discussion at CTIA, Verizon Wireless COO Lowell McAdam said, “More than the PC the cell phone is a personal space. If customers get an ad they don’t like, we are going to hear about it. We are moving slowly on this.”

Verizon Wireless’ claims that it’s slow on ads out of customer concern, which, strikes us as a little ridiculous. It’s likely more about having control of the revenue from the ads, than any thing else.

Slow moving carriers might be the best thing right now for the mobile ad startups, though eventually some will end up making deals with major carriers. There was a lot of rumors at the show that Verizon would start an ad service similar to Sprint’s in the coming weeks. As for the startups, there will likely be considerable consolidation, and could even end up being interesting acquisition targets by Internet ad companies looking to offer a mobile component.

The question remains though, will an ad-based subscription-free content model become popular on cell phones to the extent that it has on the Internet? Or will subscription-based mobile content always rule on cell phones?

Category: Mobile, Featured | Tags: Mobile Ad Networks, Mobileplay, Enpocket, AdMob, mFoundry, Third Screen Media, Verizon | Digg | Reddit | Bookmark | Send

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Will Mobile Ads Work?

Comments and Trackbacks

1. In a word: no, they will not work. The models that are being used to distribute mobile ads don’t cater to mobile device usage and in many cases hinder the mobile experience. Mobile ads work when they are not an ad in appearance and can dissolve some of the aspects of mobile computing that people take for granted. Clicking on an add, receiiving a text message, or downloading a reader that is ad supported won’t cut it.

   If advertisers want to take advantage of the mobile space, they must give space to people to be people and then live within the personal rules of mobile computing. Its too fluid of an arena for it to be anyting near successful otherwise.

2. No company wants to be the first. However, with Sprint dipping into the ad space, I am sure that their competitors will follow. As other markets have proven, people will be willing to deal with ads if they can save money. In addition, mobile content is how more and more people will get and share information. It only makes sense that the advertisers will soon follow.

3. Let’s face it, Mobile Ads will suck.

   http://www.bumpbox.com/?p=133

   Reading anything detailed on mobile is painful enough, can you imagine having to now navigate through ads as well?

   The mobile audience has to grow as well; the mobile web user base isn’t nearly as large as the traditional web user base.

3G for US market

2005 will be remembered for some major achievements in the wireless industry such as reaching the milestone of two billion subscribers worldwide and Nokia selling its one-billionth handset in Nigeria. There were some modest successes worth noting as well like total number of 3G subscribers reaching the 50 million milestone. Following Japan and Korea, 3G networks are being deployed worldwide and the subscriber base will be reaching the 10% critical mass in the next 18-24 months. In this article, we will focus our attention on 3G’s diffusion to mass-market in key geographies, look into key drivers for 3G growth, and discuss the short-term (12-18 months) and long-term (1-5 years) trends.After a hesitant start, 3G networks have finally started to proliferate. As of Dec 2005, over 90 operators have launched EV-DO (20) and WCDMA (70) networks worldwide and there are over 200 3G devices available (Source: 3GToday.com). For the purposes of this article, we will only consider broadband technologies such as CDMA EV-DO and UMTS and their subsequent enhancements as 3G. EV-DO Rev 0 and UMTS on an average provide 400-700kbps and 220-320kbps respectively; peak rates are a bit higher. EV-DO Rev A and HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access) will provide on average 500kbps-1Mbps. These upgrades will enable simultaneous (otherwise known as combinational services) rich multimedia content applications such as: full album MP3 downloads, video conferencing, movie downloads, high-res pictures, real-time VoIP, multiplayer, and interactive gaming.

In October 2001, NTT DoCoMo succeeded in launching FOMA — the world’s first fully commercialized third generation mobile service. Based upon WCDMA, FOMA supported high-volume, high-speed transmission to enable a new range of services such as videophone and videomail. Since the launch of the service, coverage has been extended to almost 100% of the Japanese population, and the release of new terminals with higher-level functionality continues to attract ever more subscribers who want to upgrade to FOMA. SK Telecom and KTF launched their EV-DO initiatives in 2002 and their subscriber base has been growing steadily. 3G has impact on both voice and data traffic and on types of applications one can introduce. One of the primary reasons for DoCoMo to move to 3G was to get more voice capacity. However, it is the data applications and traffic that industry is banking on and for good reason. There is clear evidence from launched networks that broadband wireless attracts higher ARPU. SK Telecom and KTF in Korea, DoCoMo and KDDI in Japan, Vodafone in Europe have all experienced higher ARPU from their 3G customers. Operators in other countries have also experienced over 50% gains in ARPU from 3G subscribers.

We are reaching a critical 12-18 month period in 3G’s evolution cycle. Before we delve into the trends and forecast of subscriber growth, we will first discuss what the key drivers of 3G growth are and then enumerate the important factors to enable quicker diffusion of a new technology. Both i-mode and FOMA provide good case studies of understanding the basics of successful launches.

Network Coverage
i-mode in Japan has been the most successful data service ever launched because of all the key growth factors were in place such as nationwide network coverage, choice of cheap handsets, and a healthy ecosystem of vendors, content, and applications. While i-mode did everything right, FOMA clearly lacked many of these elements on launch and as such floundered for a number of months before there were a number of good handsets with battery life equivalent to existing handsets. Once the network coverage reached over 90% POPs (Figure 1) and handset prices dropped, the consumers embraced the new services. FOMA penetration will reach over 50% during first half of 2006. It should also be noted that i-mode hasn’t really done well outside Japan primarily because of lack of clear strategy, relevant content, devices and a fractured eco-system – the very elements that made it successful in Japan.

Handset price and choice
As mentioned above, choice of affordable handsets is key to adoption. 2006 should see handset ASPs drop below $200 – an important benchmark. This should accelerate the introduction of both EV-DO and WCDMA handsets worldwide especially in Europe and North America. In price-sensitive emerging economies in South-East Asia and Latin America, 3G won’t take off until handset prices (without subsidies) drop in the range of $50.

Healthy application and services ecosystem
Another important lesson from i-mode was DoCoMo’s effort to build a healthy developer and content ecosystem before and after the launch. In her book “i-mode, the Birth of i-mode” Mari Matsunaga — who led the content development team — recounts the pains her team took to attract and retain major content players prior to the launch. This was in stark contrast to AT&T Wireless’s launch of its obligatory UMTS network in four US cities with 1980isque handsets, no differentiated content offerings, providing no compelling reason for users to upgrade. i-mode’s business model was also very attractive to content providers. Aside from any co-marketing dollars agreed to by DoCoMo and the content provider, the rev-share to i-mode was a nominal 9% of the retail rate, leaving the content provider with 91% of the revenue for itself and its partners.

External driving factors
There are some key sports events over the next three years that will accelerate the deployment and adoption of 3G services. Soccer world cup in 2006 (Germany), winter Olympics in 2006 (Italy), Cricket world cup in 2007 (West Indies), and summer Olympics in 2008 (China) will all prove to be catalyst in 3G growth worldwide. In addition to major global sporting events, the convenience of accessing important new bulletins in real-time will become a common consumer experience. With billions of fans willing to pay to track performance of their favorite teams and players, network operators worldwide wouldn’t want to miss out on this significant consumer demand. Action-packed events will also promote video and streaming services.

3G Forecasts 2006-2010
The 10% adoption represents a milestone in any consumer technology proliferation. The critical mass point in the diffusion process is generally expected to occur approximately between 10 and 20% adoption. Figure 2 shows the forecast for 3G growth worldwide and for key economies such as Japan, South Korea, UK, Western Europe and the US. As we move into 2006, Japan and Korea already have over 40% of the nation’s wireless subscribers experiencing 3G technology. The growth will continue in the two nations until 2008 when penetration will start hitting the saturation level between 80% and 90%. For US and western Europe, next 18 months will be particularly interesting as the penetration hits between 10-20%. US is just starting with its 3G growth. Verizon is leading the charge with approximately 2M EV-DO subs by end of 2005 (As of Dec 2005, Verizon’s BroadbandAccess is available to more than 140 million Americans in 171 major metropolitan areas and 68 primary airports).

Sprint and Cingular are also aggressively building out their nationwide EV-DO and UMTS/HSDPA networks respectively and signing-up customers. Sprint’s EV-DO network has been expanded to cover more than 141 markets and 250 airports nationwide since its launch in July 2005, bringing it closer to its target of being accessible to over 150 million people in 220 major markets by early 2006. Cingular is turning up approximately 16 new UMTS markets by end of 2005; they would all have the HSDPA upgrade installed. While volume HSDPA chipsets are not yet shipping, Cingular will have HSDPA-ready PC cards from Novatel and Sierra Wireless. The first handsets will be UMTS only, and Cingular is currently evaluating phones from Samsung, Nokia and LG Electronics for commercial launch. In 2006, Cingular will start selling its first HSDPA handsets, which will contain an early release of the HSDPA chipsets, supporting network data speeds of 1.8 Mb/s. The HSDPA standard has 12 separate categories, the 10th iteration of which supports HSDPA’s full theoretical capacity of 14.4 Mb/s.
Several factors will accelerate the growth of 3G adoption in US in 2006-2007.

First and foremost, network coverage for both EV-DO and UMTS will reach over 80% POPs by end of 2006. As indicated earlier, the cost of phones are dropping and economies of scale is kicking in to help alleviate the significant price-factor for mass market adoption. Finally, a number of MVNOs are launching in 2006. ESPN, Disney, Helio, Amp’d are all focused on multimedia content and applications on broadband networks. This will raise consumer awareness, put pressure on prices, and increase competition thus accelerating adoption of 3G services. However, while MVNOs will act as a catalyst, not all MVNOs will be successful as it is going to be very difficult to go after the same young demographics. MVNOs will have to continuously innovate and roll out new services in order to gain new customers and prevent them from churning.

By mid 2007, we should be hitting the 10% critical mass subscriber base for 3G services in the US. Western Europe should follow the same pattern and by end of 2007, we will be reaching 10% critical mass worldwide. By 2009, US will become the leading nation in terms of number of 3G subscribers, a status it will briefly enjoy before being eclipsed by China during early part of next decade.

As you might have noticed, China is not on the 3G map yet. There is a significant debate in the industry as to when will the 3G licenses in China be issued. It is clear that China’s government wants to have a 3G network operating in time for the Beijing Olympics in 2008, which means they need to issue the licenses within the next six months. It is also quite likely that government might only be focusing on providing the infrastructure in the cities that are hosting Olympics in which case time pressure is not that great and we could be looking at 2007 before any of the 3G network becomes operational China’s government is waiting for certain developments before issuing the licenses. Some of the Indian carriers are planning 3G trials and India might end up launching their 3G networks prior to China though it will be sometime before they can reach critical mass. The issue of China’s timing is important because it could prove to be an important swing factor for CAPEX spending in 2006. Should Chinese carriers (or the Indian carriers) get the go ahead early enough, their spending could take global growth up to or above this year’s rate of increase. That amount of increase captures a lot of attention from infrastructure vendors as it can make or break their balance sheets.

We’ve got 3G, now what?
3G in-of-itself means nothing to the end-user unless it is followed-up by some compelling services and applications that enrich consumer’s life without breaking the bank. Higher bandwidth does foster rich media applications that enhance the user experience as well as empower user to have information and content at their fingertips. With the introduction of location-based services, presence based infrastructure, more personalized concierge services, broadcast technologies such as MediaFlo and DVB-H, better battery life, multimedia content (music, video), mobile advertising, P2P and M2M applications, and mobile search, things do look bright for the industry. However, one must be cautious and not over-promise and under-deliver but rather systematically educate users on the benefits (and shortcomings) of the new services (not technology). In addition, pricing must be attractive for mass-market to be interested in such services.

There are some trends that will influence the carrier business like the move towards all-you-can-chew-n-spew pricing (irrespective of data applications). Currently, each new service (music, video, etc.) is classified as a premium service with an additional price tag. However, mass-markets have a price ceiling and over time, we will move from al-carte model to fixed fee. Additionally, as smart phones become a larger percentage of the phone population, application model on the device will look more and more like the desktop model where users will start deploying apps independent of carrier offerings.

3G will also have a significant impact on the enterprise and government sectors. Instead of being tethered to a hotspot, 3G cards will provide true mobility. Enterprises have been restlessly waiting for reliable high bandwidths with nationwide coverage. EV-DO and WCDMA both provide that capability and enterprises will be pretty aggressive in launching some vertical applications such as CRM, SFA, FFA, and SCM. Clearly, both mobile consumer and enterprise sectors are primed for growth in the coming years. Companies who are prepared to deal with the shift in communications paradigm are going profit from it.

Conclusion
It is evident that we are entering a new era of always-on mobile communications. The three billion subscriber milestone will be reached within the next three years and by then majority of the subscribers will be using 3G+ services. Within 18 months or so, we should be hitting the 10% critical mass subscriber base for 3G services in the US and Western Europe. This milestone will represent a shift towards accelerated adoption. By 2009, US will become the leading nation in terms of number of 3G subscribers. Around that time, China and India will also be in significant 3G growth mode. By focusing on the key growth drivers such as network coverage, handset prices and choices, healthy applications and services ecosystem, industry will gain quicker diffusion of 3G services. The most important people in the industry would be the ones who are challenging the existing mindset and business models. By the year 2010, the global communications marketplace – and mobile communications within that – may well be unrecognizable when compared with today. By reference, we need only to look back 15 years to observe that most of the dynamics that dominate communications today did not yet exist and were not commonly foreseen. The new mode of communication will help shape economies and communities and accelerate the progress towards always-on pervasive computing.

3G增值业务创新与市场需求

技术的发展和进步是历史进程的必然趋势，先进的技术不断给人类的生活带来更多的便利和情趣，不断促进生产力的发展，不断推动人类社会的进步。目前，比较成 熟的第三代(3G)移动通信技术会给我们的生活带来变化吗？会带来什么样的变化呢？通过以下几个问题的探讨，希望读者会得到有益的借鉴和启发。 一、第三代(3G)移动通信系统在技术层面的进步 第三代(3G)移动通信网络不外乎是提供语音业务和高速数据业务的基础网络平台，3G时代的基本语音业务其通话质量会进一步提高；3G网络能够提供符合 QoS要求的更高速数据业务(商用产品已经实现了384kbit/s的速率)，这方面确实优越于现有的2G数据业务。此外，交换机制在传统的电路交换基础 上，又引入了包交换技术。最后一点就是3G技术采用了更先进的无线信道编码机制，大大优化了网络的利用率。上述三点可以说是第三代(3G)移动通信系统在 技术上的突破。 二、移动增值业务 在2G移动通信网络的平台上，已经开通了林林总总的移动增值业务，其 中有些业务在3G网络的强有力支持下，会为用户提供更加优质的服务。对于3G业务有哪些问题， 从不同的观点出发有多种多样的答案。例如可以划分为通信类业务、查询类业务、娱乐类业务、互联网接入业务等等。 通信类业务通常包括基 础语音业务、移动视频电话(视频流媒体)业务等。3G以能够提供符合QoS要求的高速数据业务优越于现有的2G业务，但基础语音业务仍会是主要业务。3G 时代的基本语音业务其通话质量进一步提高，可能接近于固定电话的音质。需要强调的是，移动视频电话业务只有在3G网络上才能真正得以实现。移动视频电话 (视频流媒体)业务对网络带宽要求高，3G网络的高速数据传输率能够非常好的支持视频电话业务。目前看来移动视频电话业务应该成为3G的代表性业务，通过 移动视频电话业务的推广应用，会促进3G网络的进一步发展。移动视频业务的市场更需要形式丰富多彩、内容新颖别致的音频视频节目内容，但考虑到移动视频电 话业务的特点，提供的业务内容必须简洁、有个性、易于交互性操作。 查询类业务。随着无线数据传输能力的进一步提高，通过手机可以方便 获取交通实况、票务预订、餐馆指南、机票信息、字典服务、手机银行、电话簿、城市信息等等查询类信息，满足更高层次的衣食住行等生活需要。由于3G网络的 大容量与高传输速率，它支持的查询类业务更多的是图文并茂的实时交互性内容。 娱乐类业务的代表是音乐点播、影视点播(流媒体)业务。 3G时代这类业务的质量会达到前所未有的水平。用户甚至能够以2Mbit／s的速率尽情点播所喜欢的歌曲和电影，点播体育新闻和查看体育赛事。其语音和画 面质量是2.5G网络所不能及的。当然，影像图片、MP3铃声下载业务也最受用户欢迎，是目前成功的增值业务。 互联网接入业务，一般 认为3G移动通信技术会促使移动通信技术与互联网更好的融合。一旦能够方便地接入互联网，移动手机用户就可以享用互联网上无穷无尽的信息资源。用户不仅可 以在3G手机终端上撰写、收发、保存电子邮件，还可以收发文字、图片、动画、影像等多媒体信息，届时交互性操作会更加简单，更加符合人们的习惯。 移动增值业务的用户或是个人用户，或是企业用户。为企业用户提供增值业务是一个大有可为的发展方向。分析研究不同行业的特殊性，从而为用户提供真正需要的服务。 物流运输业：工作人员流动性高，动态调度是提高工作效率的主要方法，配合智能路由规划从而节约汽油费的成本开支。有吸引力的增值业务：语音业务，短信和多媒体短信，路由图(包括定位功能)。 安全执法部门：工作人员流动性高，需要移动通信的支持来保障人员的安全(报告状态，呼叫请求支援等)，现场信息需要及时验证。有吸引力的增值业务： 语音业务，短信和多媒体短信，路由图，定位业务，数据库接入业务。 信息通信行业：工作人员流动性居中，信息化程度较高，对服务的要求也高。有吸引力的增值业务： 语音业务，电话会议，短信和多媒体短信，电子邮件，即时消息，数据库接入业务，虚拟专用网，日期时间踪录业务，差旅费电子报销业务等。 公用事业(气，水，电)单位：大量现场工作人员维护管网基础设施，故障修复时间的长短是衡量他们工作的关键指标；故障修复时间越短，越节省资源。有吸引力的增值业务： 语音业务，3GPCMCIA卡数据库接入业务，日期时间踪录业务，PoC业务等。 三、移动通信公司已经提供的移动增值业务 现在，我们可以看看移动通信公司提供的增值业务的情况。其中有些业务是在2G网络上开通的，但是，有很多业务在3G网络上会给用户提供更快、更好、更符合人们使用习惯的服务，继续创造更大的价值。 1.中国移动提供的增值业务 包括彩铃、点对点短信、邮箱彩信、梦网像册、手机+笔记本上网、娱音在线、IP电话、手机钱包、手机银行、168信息点播、点对点彩信、百宝箱、随e行、梦网短信(梦网彩信)和手机证券。 2.T-Mobile通信公司提供的移动增值业务 随用随付费(Pay As You Go)：多少有些象我们使用的神州行业务，用户随时可以检查自己的剩余信用额度，不够用了，就买一张新卡，输入一串激活号码，为手机充值。 电子充值(e Top Up)：这种业务免去了买新卡输入一串激活号码的繁杂手续。用户只要购买具有按需付费功能的手机，外加一个磁卡，登记注册即可。当需要充值时，到特许店交钱、划卡，购买的同时会自动充值到手机。 文本消息投票：短消息业务通常情况下是单向的，用户只能接收短消息。利用“文本消息投票”业务，用户可以方便地使用手机投票。 批量消息(Bulk Messaging)：此业务对航空公司有用，利用这项业务可以方便、及时地告知广大订票客户他们的订票状况。 定位业务：3G网络的高速数据传输率使得定位业务具有了方便、快捷、准确的服务品质。其最大特点就是手机屏幕上显示数字化地图。因此，该业务具有广泛的应用前景。 定位业务和因特网相互配合，利用因特网人们可以找寻家人的所在，通过因特网上的详细地图，还可以形象化地看到家人在何处，何时向何方运动等信息。 利用3G定位业务，家长可以随时获取孩子是否安全抵达学校，是否在学校等信息。 医疗急救和消防部门可以利用定位业务快速确定紧急事件的地理位置，更加及时准确地提供紧急救助服务。 定位业务能够提供“量身定制”式的广告服务。商家购买了这种广告服务，使用3G定位业务的手机用户在靠近该商家的店铺时，手机屏幕上会自动出现这个商家的广告。 四.业务创新与市场需求的关系 很显然，移动公司需要不断开发各种3G业务，它们是市场成功的必要条件。没有可以应用的业务，市场成功与否无从谈起。只开发出来3G业务，并不是3G业 务能够在商业市场上成功的充分条件。这里有两个基本经验非常值得借鉴：在开发3G业务时，首先考虑考虑信息产业的源动力；其次，需要重视相关产业链在3G 业务成功要素中的作用，终端、内容提供商、计费、服务等等，缺一不可,共赢的理念在这里得到了最好的体现。中国移动通信集团公司的副总裁鲁向东先生对这两 个基本问题做过比较深刻的阐述，有必要在此复述其大意，希望大家能够从中受益 信息产业发展的源动力：市场的需求是一个源动力，实践已经证明，个人通信越来越成为人类发展的重要需求，随时随地随身可用的通信手段才能满足人类获取信 息，处理信息和交流信息的迫切需要。技术发展也是强大的驱动力，20世纪60年代以来，信息技术尤其是通信技术和互联网技术的飞速发展极大地推动了相关产 业的发展，新理论、新技术、新产品层出不穷，这些转化成生产力，积极地推动了人类社会的发展。竞争也是驱动力，在监管下的公平，公正的竞争，可以促进相关 产业快速地，健康地发展。 业务创新的关键：第一关键点，把握好技术解决方案和最终市场需求的平衡点，这个平衡点是非常重要的，把握不 好，不可能实现真正意义的业务创新。商业上体现不了其价值的创新，只能称其为业务方案(或技术方案)。大基金投入的基于卫星通信网络的全球移动通信系统， 并没有取得商业上的成功，原因主要是这项应用技术与消费者的接受程度和消费者的需求之间存在很大的差距。 第二关键点，一定要把握好商 业模式，没有一个很好的商业模式，业务创新也不会成功。在移动数据业务和移动接入互联网业务的发展初期，相当的企业都看到了这个业务有很好的前景，移动公 司提供无线接入平台，SP唱戏，是我们中国发展移动增值业务的一个成功的商业模式，我们今天可以说它确实对中国的移动增值业务的发展起到了很大的促进作 用。日本I-mode取得成功，实际上是其商业模式的成功。 第三关键点，业务创新必须基于多赢的理念。无论是运营商、设备厂家、SP、CP，还是我们的用户，还有用户的用户，都要赢；如果产业价值链有一环不能盈利，整个产业也不会成功。共赢的业务创新才有不断发展的源动力。 面对浪潮起伏的市场，讨论技术应用，讨论网络规模，讨论业务创新，我们应该首先考虑如何让所有的投入为产业链带来价值，如何为我们的用户带来真正的价值，如何为我们的用户的用户带来真正的价值，这应该成为业务创新的正确指导思想。

第二代彩话 移动增值业务的下一个沸点

近日，一款在手机上使用的彩话软件――MOMO正在年轻时尚一族中悄然流行。外企职员小张兴奋地告诉记者，现在他可以把自己手机里的音乐设置成跟朋友们通话过程中的背景音乐，以营造不同的通话氛围。何谓“彩话”？即“个性化背景音通话”，是一项可以在通话过程中自由选择播放个性化背景音以及插播各种特殊背景音效的业务。

　　“不温不火”的第一代彩话

据了解，最早的彩话业务出现于欧洲，当地的运营商为用户的对话配上各种声音背景，例如堵车、开会、地铁等音效，由此满足一些用户的开玩笑或者搪塞理由的特殊需要。随后，彩话开始在日本、韩国风行。

2004年4月广州移动率先为动感地带用户开通彩话服务，这一业务才在国内正式登陆。随后，电信、联通、网通等运营商也在各地进行试点，开始了第一代彩话业务的运营。但因为技术局限等因素的影响，彩话业务一直未达到十分理想的增长局面

不过彩话业务潜在用户需求所映射的巨大市场前景，使业内始终看好其未来的发展，各方力量也一直在为彩话的“沸腾”而备战。据记者了解，小张所说的这款MOMO彩话软件就是WAP门户网站摩网于近期推出的。

　　“一厢情愿”到“两情相悦”的第二代彩话

据了解，运营商推出的“彩话”是由主叫方在拨出电话号码前加拨一个特殊服务号码才能在通话中使用由主叫方选播的各种音乐；这种基于IVR平台来实现的“彩话”业务必须由主叫方来操控，被叫方只能被动接受。

而时下正流行的手机客户端彩话软件——MOMO颠覆了现有“彩话”的语音通话方式，使操作更简便，用户只需在手机上预先安装软件即可自由管理自 己手机上的音乐；更重要的是，无论是在拨出还是呼入的通话中都可以使用，满足了拨出和呼入双向的个性化需求。业内分析人士则认为，以MOMO为代表的第二 代彩话的解决方案将促使彩话业务的发展进入一个全新的时期。

记者还了解到，目前免费使用的MOMO公测版除了提供彩话服务外还具有在线交友聊天（包括跟MSN好友互通聊天）、定位、浏览资讯等强大的娱乐功能。

随着未来3G的到来，人们对手机娱乐化的要求越来越高，更多的移动增值业务也将应运而生。以MOMO为代表的第二代彩话能否成为移动增值业务的又一个沸点？我们拭目以待。

中国固网运营商3G业务收入将快速上升

2006/09/18

iResearch艾瑞市场咨询从Norson基于中国3G业务的研究发现，固网运营商在未来3G市场中的用户发展、ARPU值将呈现快速上升的趋势。预 计2007年年中3G牌照发放，固网运营商同时开始建网，由于初期网络建设的巨大投资和移动业务运营经验的缺乏，预计固网运营商3G用户渗透率为5%左 右，收入将达到0.13亿元人民币。

Cellphone P2P

Cellphone P2P Sparks via Rabble?

Ahh, the time has finally arrived! Now, Verizon Wireless customers with a select number of Get It Now phones will be able to create, and then distribute their content for others to download. So, now you get to be your own producer and publisher. Other users will be able to search through an organized system that will allow users to find what they’re looking for, creating by fellow users. Now, why does this say “PSP” in the title, you ask? Well, this is exactly how other services on the PC have started. My opinion? People will find a way to get through this. Don’t they always do?

For more information, click “Read” below…

Capitalizing on the massive consumer trend toward Internet blogging, Rabble users can publish personalized media channels through certain channels to allow Rabble users to promote themselves, connect with like-minded individuals or groups, give voice to opinions, discuss events, report news, review locales and more. Rabble users define their own limits or rules that govern who can access their channel of information—and this feature allows them to maintain control over the distribution of personal content. Rabble users can conduct powerful searches of user-generated content based on interest, time, location or browse the available community around them to connect with one individual or to many. Though it is the first mobile-centric blogging application, Verizon Wireless Get It Now customers who use many of the top blogging sites can use Rabble as a tool to publish to their existing blog on the Web or import their existing blog to Rabble.

“Rabble marks a new era in mobile communication, providing a platform that truly empowers consumers to realize the full potential of their personal mobile device,” said Shawn Conahan, founder, chairman and chief executive officer of Intercasting Corp. “We’re thrilled that Verizon Wireless can bring our vision to its vast customer base through its popular Get It Now service. Our relationship underscores both of our commitments to bringing compelling and dynamic applications to wireless consumers.”

“Intercasting Corp.’s innovative mobile application further diversifies our line up of leading services and products,” said Jim Straight, vice president of multimedia services for Verizon Wireless. “Rabble gives our Get It Now customers a whole new way to connect and communicate—it’s an example of the advanced capabilities that mobile devices and services can deliver.”

Rabble is available in the getMESSAGING shopping aisle of the Get It Now virtual store for $2.99 monthly access. Rabble is available on select Get It Now-enabled phones, including the LG VX4500, VX4600, VX6000 and VX6100; Samsung SCH-a650, SCH-a670 and SCH-n330; Motorola V710; Audiovox CDM-8900 and CDM-8910; and Verizon Wireless’ CDM8940.

Download charges for Get It Now applications vary and airtime charges apply when browsing, downloading and using certain applications. Customers need a Get It Now-enabled handset and Verizon Wireless digital service to access the virtual store. Consumers should use caution when distributing or disclosing any personal information.

For more information about Rabble and Get It Now from Verizon Wireless, visit http://www.verizonwireless.com/getitnow.