U.S. tech trends for 2008
[Editor’s note: This is an Op-Ed piece by Bernard Moon, an entrepreneur who blogs at Silicon Moon. It’s time to hear from an entrepreneur, as we’ve already heard from the VCs; see here and here.]
A couple of months ago, my wife and I visited Seoul, South Korea—a trip that inspired me to come up with a list of technology predictions for 2008 and beyond. The land that brought us bottle service, massive multiplayer online role playing, and paid online casual gaming serves as a good place to consider emerging trends—not just technologies that are on their way to the U.S. but also those the U.S. will export to the rest of the world. Here are a few predictions of what I see lurking on the immediate and not-so-immediate technology horizon.
Mobile videoconferencing reaches the states. If you’re a teen, the only thing better than gabbing on your cell with a friend is gabbing on your cell with a bunch of friends—and seeing each of them on screen as you do so. In Korea kids are doing just this—videoconferencing as they speak to friends via mobile handsets—and loving it. Since kids are kids everywhere, we can expect to see a similar response in the United States, though we probably won’t see it happen before the end of 2008. Unlike Korea—which has the only commercial WiMAX networks in the world—the United States doesn’t have the Mobile WiMAX capabilities required to stream video at 8 megabits per second or greater (16 Mbps or greater for downloads). In the U.S., you’re lucky if your cable modem service gets 6 Mbps—and a range of 2 Mbps to 4 Mbps is far more typical. When mobile videoconferencing does become a reality here, how will it impact handset manufacturers? Can we expect to see larger mobile phones and bigger screens as a result? Only time will tell.
Virtual currencies warm up. Content is not the only driver for sustainable online communities; virtual economics play an important role as well, with virtual currency serving as an increasingly critical tool. Virtual goods already provide a viable business model in online worlds—with companies providing outlets in which players can convert in-game assets into real-world wealth (and vice-versa). Virtual goods are starting to find their way into every other area of the Net as well—only now it’s not just about generating revenue but about paying people (in virtual currency) for their eyeballs. Virtual currency is already used to grab users’ attention for online product launches and games and could soon become a common feature in all online networks and worlds. As companies and services vie for user attention, we can expect to see more and more of them rewarding users with virtual coins or points that can be traded for cash or noncash goods and services. Worst-case scenario, we all turn into brain-dead mouse clickers obsessed with accumulating Yelp and Starwood points. Best-case scenario, we’re rewarded for our time and effort with healthy incentives.
Semantic Web slowly begins to gel. Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the Web of the future—in which data itself becomes part of the Web and can be processed independently of application, platform, or domain—is finally becoming a reality … albeit slowly. In 2008 we can expect the various filtering, aggregating, and grouping efforts to continue as the Web 2.0 services that initially captured our attention (such as Radar Networks and Adaptive Blue) expand and evolve. Now the questions become, how will data be organized? By advanced algorithms? By humans (no, not Mahalo)? And what format or tools will be used? Tagging? Grouping? Finally, what do users want? Friends’ feeds? Multimedia files? The latest books, photos, and gossip on Britney Spears? I believe we’ll see a couple of tangible and useful services take off next year (including some of the stealth startups I’ll be writing about soon).
Location-based mobile services gain ground. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker, 20 percent of mobile phones currently include the satellite-based navigation system Global Positioning System (GPS)—a number that’s expected to grow to 50 percent within five years. This means that at last a critical mass of end users has emerged for location-based mobile services that take advantage of GPS. Thus, we can expect to see a surge of activity in this area. I can visualize it already—my weight soaring as In-N-Out pushes me a coupon every time I get within proximity of an outlet, my credit card bills soaring as Nordstrom and Macy’s send my wife sales notices and coupons. It will be horrible; I’ll be dragged to these places more often. Forget it! I hate location-based services already!
Interactive TV makes a comeback. This won’t be like watching Evander Holyfield or Mike Tyson attempting a comeback—a one-time champ too old and worn out to rise to prominence again. Instead, it will be more like watching a boxer who debuted too early return and live up to his initial promise. This time around the infrastructure is actually cost-effective; the integration of the Internet and TV has created infinite collaborative possibilities; and new entrants (such as consumer electronics makers) are eyeing the market. Interactive TV won’t be a media champ; however, it will serve as an important secondary source for information, commerce, and social networking. Efforts such as Apple TV (which combines Internet content and television) represent the first step in Internet content being ported to millions of U.S. couch potatoes. With consumer electronics manufacturers eager to capture more of their customers’ mindshare, this represents a potential battleground for cable and satellite operators.
Watch for the trends I’ve spotlighted here to emerge in 2008 and beyond—and let me know what technology trends you see on the horizon.
Internet business model in Chinese
1.在线广告;
最主要最常见的网络在线盈利模式,国内做的较好的是新浪(www.sina.com.cn )、搜狐(www.sohu.com )、网易( www.163.com )雅虎(www.yahoo.com.cn) 等门户网站(包括行业门户)。
新兴的在线短视频网站,通过影音载入前后的等待时间播放广告主的在线广告
典型例子:
国外的youtube (www.youtube.com )
国内的56(www.56.com )、土豆(www.toodou.com )、六间房(www.6rooms.com )、
偶偶(www.ouou.com )等
2.彩铃彩信下载、短信发送、电影手机注册、手机游戏下载、电子杂志订阅等电信增值形式;
目前最赚钱的网络盈利模式之一,几乎每个进入全球排名前10万位的商业性网站和个人网站都在通过sp来获取经济回报,目前由于sp受到中国移动等运营商的限制,盈利率有些下降,以此类引力模式为主的上市公司市值较以前有缩水。
典型例子:
空中网(www.kong.net )
3G门户 (www.3g.net.cn )
Zcom (www.zcom.com )
唯刊(www.vika.cn )
腾讯(www.qq.com )
3.通过网站销售产品;
A.通过网站销售别人的产品;
典型例子:
(B2C 和 C2C模式)
淘宝(www.taobao.com )易趣(www.ebay.com.cn) 在线竞拍,从成功交易中抽取佣金。
卓越 (www.joyo.com )当当(www.dangdang.com ) B2C
豆瓣网(www.douban.com )营造社区,推荐销售抽取佣金。
B.通过网站销售自己的产品;
大多数外贸网站和国内中小企业网站,多不胜举
比如:起名类网站。
4.注册会员收费,提供与免费会员差异化的服务;
典型例子:
阿里巴巴(www.cn.alibaba.com ) 中国B2B 网站典范。
慧聪商情(www.hc360.com ) B2B
金银岛(www.315.com.cn ) B2B
我的钢铁(www.mysteel.com) 中国钢铁行业门户
中国化工网(www.chemnet.com.cn) 中国化工行业门户
配货网 (www.peihuo.cn )
51 (www.51.com )
5.网络游戏运营,虚拟装备和道具买卖;
典型例子:
网易游戏( www.163.com )
盛大游戏(www.poptang.com www.shanda.com.cn )
九城游戏(www.the9.com www.ninetowns.com )
久游(www.9you.com )
及其游戏地方代理运营商。
6. 搜索竞排、产品招商、分类网址和信息整合,付费推荐和抽成盈利;
典型例子:
百度( www.baidu.com )
迅雷 (www.xunlei.com )
中国商机在线 (www.28.com)
一网商机(www.e26.cn )
当代医药(www.ey99.com)
58同城(www.58.com)
客齐集(www.kijiji.com)
Hao123 (www.hao123.com )
265(www.265.com )
3721(www.3721.com )
请客800(www.qingke800.com )
K68 (www.k68.cn )
豆瓣 (www.douban.com )
7.广告中介
广告联盟网站通过给为广告主和站长服务,差价销售广告,获得利润。
典型例子:
弈天广告联盟 (www.unionsky.cn )
Iplus广告联盟(www.iplus.com.cn)
好耶广告联盟(www.allyes.com )
窄告网 (www.narrowad.com )
8.企业信息化服务
A .帮助企业建设维护推广网站
中企动力(www.ce.net.cn )
铭万(www.mainone.com )B2B+建站
城库 (www.chengku.com ) B2B+建站 (依靠红头文件开展企业信息化服务,这类有政府背景的网络公司不在少数,赚钱比起一般的网络公司容易的多)
书生(www.booksir.com ) 一站式服务,从代理销售网络实名起家。
B.代理销售大公司的网络产品
几乎每个网络公司都在做,不再举例。
C.网络基础服务提供
万网(www.net.cn)
新网互联 (www.dns.com.cn )
新网(www.xinnet.com )
中国频道 (www.china-channel.com )
商务中国(www.bizcn.com)
很多规模较小的公司也在做域名注册,服务器托管的生意,收入比较稳定。
D.网络营销策划和搜索引擎优化的专业公司
通王科技 (www.tongwang.com )
冯英健 (www.jingzhengli.cn )
9.其他盈利模式
盈利模式没有固定的,只有成功和不成功之分。现实网络中存在各种各样的盈利模式以及若干中盈利模式的组合。
总结起来,网站的盈利其实无非是,卖产品或者卖服务或者两者结合,区别是可能是卖别人的也可能是卖自己的
http://hi.baidu.com/c%5Fbotong/blog/item/3b2fdf5460c0d158d10906fe.html来源
3G Social Networking Goldmine
3G Social Networking Goldmine – communities-dominate.blogs.com – Tomi T. Ahonen
Technologies of Cooperation
When I first looked at Tomi Ahonen’s blog – Communities Dominate Brands – and immediately began ordering a copy of his latest book I had the familiar feeling of reading someone’s writings who “gets it” and “sees the imminent future“.
People know me in the Web Metrics Community as somewhat of an authority on Web Metrics, perhaps a “visionary” who sees where things are going, much as Howard Rheingold does in books like SmartMobs. It’s the artist in me that gave me the vision ot see Visual Sciences as the best Web Analytics Platform, bar none, leading many to take a closer look at that high end platform. It’s the same vision that tells me HitWise needs to be merged with Web Analytics vendors, that RSS subscribers are the main measure of loyalty, care of Seth Godin. And now I’m seeing the future in Tomi Ahonen’s ideas about 3G Mobile Networking – the goldmine is there – and he “sees” that goldmine – he knows it.
I think Howard believes in 3G Social Networking ….he wrote THE BOOK on it! Now Tomi Ahonen has taken that idea and ran with it …. looking at next wave ….. the 3G Mobile Social Neworking goldmine.
What’s the future? 3G Social Networking applications are worth more, today, than MySpace, YouTube, Flickr, Bebo, Second Life, Worlds of Warcraft, Skype etc!
“……..more revenues generated by similar social networking activity… on mobile phones of course. Led by such services as Cyworld from South Korea (in 6 countries), Mixi in Japan, Habbo Hotel from Finland (in over a dozen countries) and SeeMeTV in the UK, Italy and other 3/Hutchison markets – social networking on mobile is THE first elusive killer app for 3G !”
Today, many of those applications lie outside the mobile phone / device – perhaps a service one subscribes to – it’s not built into the software provided by the mobile network vendor (IE: TMobile, Verizon Wireless, etc). As far as what Tomi Ahonen is saying ….. I totally believe it and here’s why – illustrated by a story. I ran into two friends recently at an art opening in Brooklyn, Matthew and Nichelle, who are part of an art social network in New York that keep in constant communication with each other – they have Google Calanders sync’d in so they can see where each other is and meet up if they want. Matt and Nichelle do what I write about in WebMetricsGuru.com - they practice Social Networking – it’s in their bones ….. in fact they use DodgeBall and Plaxo to see all of their contacts in real time ….. hundreds of messages a day – hundreds of events a week in NYC – 4 people in this network (two I haven’t met yet).
That’s the power on real time 3G Mobile Social Networking……and the whole story of 3G Social Networking is being told for the first time by Tomi Ahonen in his blog and book Communities Dominate Brands.
How big is the pot of gold at the end of the 3G Social Network market THIS YEAR?
Informa tells us it is worth 3.45 billion dollars in 2006. Yes, mobile digital communities are worth more than online adult entertainment, or mobile gambling or multiplayer gaming or iTunes. Like we say in our book, Communities Dominate!
When I’m at Ad-Tech NY next month I’ll be sure to both attend the 3G Social Networking Sessions and put the speakers on the spot (as I’ll be interviewing many of speakers and companies for Know More Media’s www.WebMetricsGuru.com, my Web Metrics Blog that many influentials read (I found that out, to my surprise, at the EMetrics Summit in DC this month….me…they read my blog….yes they do), especially for Web Metrics – I’ll be covering Ad-Tech as a reporter / press). As Tomi says in a recent blog post titled: Why is mobile social networking worth $3.45b?
…..The story, is about people – and what we are – A “we species” – human beings are highly social and are built to be so. But industrialisation, mass-consumption, mass-media – although providing us with greater prosperity – denied us some of our fundamental rights as people.
And now we’re taking our Social Networking rights – enabled by technology.
But don’t believe my word….read Tomi’s blog which has – a lot of material in it – but he makes a case for Mobile 3G Social Networking being the real goldmine that should be looked at much more closely – given much more press than it has.
Links: Communities Dominate Brands – I’ll leave the rest of the links out…they’re all over the post.
10 Tips for Startups to Partner with Sprint
Sprint executives might be licking their wounds this morning after announcing that the company’s profit fell 52% for the third quarter1. But yesterday Sprint’s Vice President for Partner Development and Product Innovation Paul Reddick was more than happy to dole out advice to mobile startups at the IBF Mobile and Wireless Investing Conference in San Jose. Reddick is basically the gate keeper for mobile startups looking to do a deal with Sprint. If you have a mobile application you want on Sprint’s deck, you better start buying this guy drinks.
Sprint is one of the most aggressive U.S. carriers when it comes to data services and new applications. That’s being reflected negatively in the company’s earnings right now, but that also means sometimes Sprint is the first carrier deal a mobile startup can make. Reddick says his team has looked at 4,000 ideas this year, and he’s held this position for around five years — OK, so he’s more than qualified to give advice to a room full of investors and entrepreneurs.
During a lunch time talk, Reddick showed off a long list of services and technologies that Sprint is looking to find more innovation in, like mobile video and location-based services. But he highlighted the mobile UI, which he says has not kept up with the pace of application innovation. (If you’ve got good UI ideas, you know who to pitch.) Reddick also decided to play father figure, and dole out a list of advice to startups and developers on how to work with carriers — check these out before pitching the Sprint team:
- Know thyself — consider your scope carefully and be specific of what you do that is better than everything out there.
- Know if you are a mass market or a niche application — mass market is hard to get right, because it has to be popular to such a wide audience. But also if you’re a niche application don’t expect to be placed on the deck.
- Educate objectively before selling passionately — carriers see a lot of ideas, don’t oversell it.
- Admit what you’ve accomplished versus trying to sell what is really a work in progress.
- Be specific about what you want from the carrier. And know what the carrier has deployed in the market — at CTIA he says he had a guy pitching him an application that they had launched three years ago.
- Provide differentiation.
- Adapt to new models — he gives the example of Sprint bundling applications with the handset, which he says is a risky move and a big shift for Sprint.
- Leverage new capabilties — like WiMAX.
- Avoid asking him why your application can’t be on the Sprint’s deck — he says he hears a sense of entitlement. Go off deck.
- His team focuses on finding innovation that can fix technology and service bottlenecks. Keep that in mind.
From Giga OM
Internet business model
Business models are perhaps the most discussed and least understood aspect of the web. There is so much talk about how the web changes traditional business models. But there is little clear-cut evidence of exactly what this means.In the most basic sense, a business model is the method of doing business by which a company can sustain itself — that is, generate revenue. The business model spells-out how a company makes money by specifying where it is positioned in the value chain.
Some models are quite simple. A company produces a good or service and sells it to customers. If all goes well, the revenues from sales exceed the cost of operation and the company realizes a profit. Other models can be more intricately woven. Broadcasting is a good example. Radio and later television programming has been broadcasted over the airwaves free to anyone with a receiver for much of the past century. The broadcaster is part of a complex network of distributors, content creators, advertisers (and their agencies), and listeners or viewers. Who makes money and how much is not always clear at the outset. The bottom line depends on many competing factors.
Internet commerce will give rise to new kinds of business models. That much is certain. But the web is also likely to reinvent tried-and-true models. Auctions are a perfect example. One of the oldest forms of brokering, auctions have been widely used throughout the world to set prices for such items as agricultural commodities, financial instruments, and unique items like fine art and antiquities. The Web has popularized the auction model and broadened its applicability to a wide array of goods and services.
Business models have been defined and categorized in many different ways. This is one attempt to present a comprehensive and cogent taxonomy of business models observable on the web. The proposed taxonomy is not meant to be exhaustive or definitive. Internet business models continue to evolve. New and interesting variations can be expected in the future.
The basic categories of business models discussed in the table below include:
- Brokerage
- Advertising
- Infomediary
- Merchant
- Manufacturer (Direct)
- Affiliate
- Community
- Subscription
- Utility
The models are implemented in a variety of ways, as described below with examples. Moreover, a firm may combine several different models as part of its overall Internet business strategy. For example, it is not uncommon for content driven businesses to blend advertising with a subscription model.
Business models have taken on greater importance recently as a form of intellectual property that can be protected with a patent. Indeed, business models (or more broadly speaking, “business methods”) have fallen increasingly within the realm of patent law. A number of business method patents relevant to e-commerce have been granted. But what is new and novel as a business model is not always clear. Some of the more noteworthy patents may be challenged in the courts.
|
About the author: Michael Rappa is the Alan T. Dickson Distinguished University Professor of Technology Management at North Carolina State University in Raleigh, North Carolina.