Cascade Mobile P2p

Cascada Mobile now offers TAG referral distribution technology. Now this really isn’t P2P. They call it P2P because a user can use it to contact another user … but he has to go through their server.

Still, mobile P2P presents an interesting challenge due to the limited resources on a phone compared to a PC. Plus phones have different operating system and capabilities. Developers have to translate the display for each phone model. Designers either limit functionality so the app will work across a wide swath of phones, or more typically route the phone client into a server somewhere. This does the latter.

More on Cascada:

“Cascada Mobile, a provider of technology for peer-to-peer mobile content distribution, announced the Cascada TAG referral distribution technology. TAG provides mobile content publishers and developers with a solution to enable instantaneous referral of content between any mobile subscriber and their peers.

TAG works by providing publishers and developers with an API that is embedded into any J2ME game or application. Once a subscriber purchases and downloads the application, he can at any time refer or recommend the application to his peers by selecting the recommend menu option embedded in the application. The TAG system then takes care of notifying the intended recipients of the recommendation and determining the version and location of the application that will be compatible with the recipient’s mobile device and carrier.

The process of integrating the TAG SDK generally takes less than five hours, including testing. TAG provides flexibility on how and when a referral can be initiated, either from a game menu or as the result of an event in the application. Because the integration takes place in development, developers can match the “recommend” to a friend feature with the look and feel of the application. The SDK also includes reporting features in order to track customer referral behavior.”

Mobo P2p discussion

Mobile P2P
Related Topics: Mobile Music, Mobile Video, Search, DRM — Permalink – Comments (2) [by james] I haven’t heard of any mobile p2p services currently in operation, although some services are coming close. “Verizon Wireless customers with a select number of Get It Now phones will be able to create, and then distribute their content for others to download. So, now you get to be your own producer and publisher. Other users will be able to search through an organized system that will allow users to find what they’re looking for, creating by fellow users. Now, why does this say “P2P” in the title, you ask? Well, this is exactly how other services on the PC have started.”
The question that’s on everybody’s lips — or at least was posed by Rafat last week — is what the effect of the recent Grokster decision will have on mobile content?
Well, there’s been no commentary here or on the web about that (at least that I could find) so I thought I’d have a crack at it myself. I don’t think the decision will affect mobile phone content at all, because the general consensus around the web is that the court came down against Grokster and StreamCast because they actively promoted copyright infringing activity. The record labels wanted a “primary use” definition for a technology to be declared copyright infringing, but they didn’t get (which is a good thing for Apple — there’s a strong argument that the majority of songs on iPods are pirated). There’s no reason for anyone to induce copyright infringement on mobile phones because there’s no way to get paid for it — except by charging for bandwidth, and the carriers are too eager to get friendly with record labels to start promoting copyright infringing activity, even without the desire to benefit by charging for song downloads. For the forseeable future bandwidth charges will keep illicit filesharing prohibitively expensive over mobile networks…
Of course, there are some programs that promote sharing using bluetooth or another shortrange wireless technology, bypassing the carriers altogether. Nokia Sensor allows users to create folios on their device, view the folios of other nearby Sensor users, and exchange messages and files. Since this is intended and promoted as a social networking tool it is safe under the Grokster decision.
While copyright infringing activity is likely to occur on mobile phones, it’s most likely to be people MMSing or e-mailing the files directly to their friends, rather than any piece of specific software.
Related stories:
–Is Content Sharing On Mobile An Issue?
–Mobile Anti-Piracy Royalties Cut After Complaints
–RIM out to eradicate ‘truetone’ piracy disease

 

© 2002-2006 Dis*Content Media LLC

2 Responses to “Mobile P2P”

US wireless market

August 13, 2006

US Wireless Data Market: Mid Year Update statistics

US Wireless Data Market: Mid Year Update
By Chetan Sharma

• US wireless data market is growing at an impressive rate. Top 4 US carriers (Cingular, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and T-Mobile) accounted for over $6.3B in wireless data revenues for the first half of 2006. Overall, wireless data service revenues exceeded $7B and the figures are likely to exceed $15B for the year 2006. This is almost a 75% jump from end-of-2005 number of $8.6B. The growth rate slowed down only slightly from 2004-2005 growth rate of 87%. SMS and data transport still drives bulk of data revenues but their percentage share is declining.

• Among the top 4 US carriers, Verizon has made the most impressive strides in the last 4 quarters, increasing their wireless data revenues by a whopping 114%. Next Sprint with 71%, T-Mobile with 65%, and Cingular with 54% also netted impressive gains.

• Verizon became the first US carrier to net over $1B in wireless data revenues in a quarter. Cingular was close second with $979M and Sprint with $935M are likely to cross the $1B mark next quarter.

• Sprint retains its leadership position of highest wireless data ARPU in terms of absolute dollar amount at $7.25 but lost its number one spot in the % data ARPU to Verizon which now leads the US carriers at almost 13%. Average data ARPU is now $6.3 or 12%.

• Overall ARPU (voice + data) increased slightly from Q106 but declined $0.27 from Q405. The general trend is towards slow decline. Data revenue is barely keeping up with the decline in voice ARPU. On an average voice ARPU has declined 8% from a year ago and data ARPU has increased 48%. Average Overall ARPU was $53.04. Sprint led with $62 followed by T-Mobile at $51, Verizon at $49.7, and Cingular with $48.4.

• If the current trends hold, Verizon Wireless is likely to surpass Cingular Wireless as number 1 US carrier by Q307.

• US had about 7M 3G subscribers by Q206, primarily from Verizon and Sprint Nextel. With Cingular joining the fray, the 3G growth is expected to accelerate with 2007 being the inflection year.

• US wireless subscriber penetration stands at approximately 74% and is likely to exceed 78% by the end of the year.

• Top 4 carriers added 12.7M subscribers from Jan-Jun 2006.

• The top 4 US carrier account for 79% of the subscribers, 86% of the service revenues, and approximately 95% of the wireless data revenues.

• US Off-net revenues for the year are likely to exceed $750M.

• Data ARPU of CDMA/EV-DO carriers was 20% higher than GSM/WCDMA carriers.

• Several high-profile MVNOs were also launched in the last few months and the overall results have been disappointing primarily due to poor execution, instant crowding effect, and competition from big 4.

• US wireless carriers are steadily climbing in their wireless data performance as compared to their peers worldwide. Verizon, Cingular, and Sprint ranked number 4, 5, and 6 respectively, amongst the top 10 operators worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenue generated for first half of 2006.

• The #1 carrier worldwide in terms of total wireless data revenue for the first six months of 2006 is NTT DoCoMo which has maintained its position for a number of years. It is now generating almost $900M/month from wireless data revenues.

• The top 10 carriers in terms of total wireless data revenues for 1H06 in order of rank are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, KDDI, Verizon Wireless, Cingular Wireless, Sprint Nextel, O2 UK, Vodafone Japan, SK Telecom, and China Unicom. (6 Asian, 3 US, 1 Europe. Who says US is behind). Vodafone Germany, TMO Germany, and TMO US are also closing in.

• All the top 10 carriers in the list exceeded $1B in data revenues for the first six months of 2006. China Mobile and China Unicom benefited from their huge subscriber base of 274M and 135M respectively while DoCoMo and KDDI did well because they are generating over $17 (or 28%) in wireless data ARPU.

• The top 10 carriers accounted for almost $24B in wireless data revenues for the first six months of 2006. The top 10 carriers account for approximately 700M (or approx 28%) subscribers worldwide.

• In terms of wireless investments, over $2.8B was invested in wireless related companies/startups from Jan-Jun 2006 (this figure jumped to $4.1B in July). Source: Rutberg. Mobile TV/Video, Mobile Personalization, Mobile Search and Advertising, Semiconductor, Carrier infrastructure, Device design and development are hot areas. M&A activity also picked up quite significantly.

• WiMax industry got a big boost with almost $1B investment in Clearwire and due to Sprint Nextel’s announcement of WiMax deployment. Sigh of relief for Intel and Samsung. Puts pressure on Qualcomm. Maybe Intel will renegotiate with Clearwire.

• Worldwide Handset market share: Nokia and Motorola dominated with 35% and 23% market share respectively. Samsung with 12% stands third. Source: iSuppli. Though Apple’s iPhone rumors have been clouding the market, it is Motorola which continues to lead in launching must-have handsets. Windows mobile is starting to make serious inroads in the handset market but performance issues and high price points deter mass market adoption.

2005 Wireless Trend

Global mobile trend update 2005     META Group Press Release on ITWeb   Posted: 5 May 2005

The mobile market is maturing and struggling to find a growth area. Basic infrastructure has been deployed in most markets, with some high-speed data capabilities in major markets. Mobile operator consolidation will continue in most markets, and users must scrutinise operators and negotiate contracts with great care.META trend: Packet-switched mobile networks based on 2.5G (GPRS and CDMA 1xRTT) are available worldwide, and most industrialised countries will have 3G (W-CDMA and CDMA 1xEV-DO) built out by 2006/07. However, coverage, reliability and roaming remain challenges, with latency a problem for 2.5G networks, addressed somewhat in 3G services.In 2005, WiMAX (IEEE 802.16) wireless metropolitan-area networks will be adopted by service providers for backhaul and wireless broadband delivery, dramatically increasing local-loop competition and driving down access prices 10% to 20% per year (starting in 2006), while providing an alternative for enterprises interconnecting campus buildings. WiMAX will evolve to support mobility by 2008 and complement WiFi in multimode handsets, increasing available bandwidth to the megabit range; multi-megabit cellular service will emerge in 2008.Technology trends Voice is the most compelling application for mobile carrier networks, and carriers are attempting to grow the market via data services. The trend to leverage mobile voice as the principal voice line is growing among knowledge-worker-intensive organisations. Enterprise adoption of 3G data services (ie, offering capacities of between 200Kbps and 2Mbps) will remain limited until at least 2007. Voice will remain the dominant application in mobile networks until 2010 by volume, and 2008 by revenue. This trend will not change when packetised voice (eg, VOIP) will be introduced in future versions of 3G/4G networks. Even though the business case is unclear, operators have continued their 3G roll-outs in most markets. Competition from other wireless data alternatives will limit the potential for 3G – especially WiFi (2005+) and WiMAX (2007+). 3G services are starting to receive some market acceptance beyond Japan and South Korea, and the vendor hype for a next set of services has begun. Market buzz has already started around High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), “Super 3G” and 4G. While the demand for additional capacity is unclear – users are not buying what is already offered – what is needed is better integration between wireless services. Fortunately, 4G is mostly a collection of services combining existing technologies (including 3G and WiFi) with other kinds of wireless technologies like WiMAX and future evolutions of 3G/UMTS. As a result, 4G will be less disruptive and more widely accepted if the promise is delivered upon. 3G’s remaining problems are more focused on the business case and less about technology. The previous technical issues that slowed 3G’s roll-out (eg, lack of appropriate handsets, poor battery life, problems with handoffs to/from legacy networks) have been addressed. The remaining challenges are mainly commercial (eg, the structure of compelling and profitable offerings such as regional or global pricing plans and flat-rate versus usage-based billing). Vendors are centring on fewer wireless standards. In the 2007/08 time frame, networks will be almost exclusively based on either the GSM evolution or the CDMA evolution (see below). As mobile-operator consolidation continues, remaining entities will have to standardise on one of the two established standards to stay competitive. For example, Sprint Nextel is left with two competing technologies (ie, CDMA and iDen); we expect only CDMA to be supported beyond 2008. By YE05, enterprise-class handsets will generally be dual-mode 2G/3G, with specific variants by country and technology. For the GSM evolution (available in all countries in the world except eight; used by all operators in EMEA, some in the Americas and most in Asia Pacific, but not Japan and South Korea), handsets will support GSM, GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA, operating in five bands (850/900/1 800/1 900/2 100MHz). For the CDMA evolution (used by some operators in Japan, the Americas, China, India and Australia, as well as all operators in South Korea), handsets will support CDMA, CDMA 1xRTT and CDMA 1xEV-DO, operating in three bands (850/1 900/2 100MHz). In addition, META Group expects to see the introduction of multimode phones in various forms, with some versions combining GSM with CDMA, and some combining GSM with voice over WiFi. The GSM/CDMA combo will remain very niche and low volume, as it caters to a very small user population. Likewise, the GSM/WiFi combo will be niche until at least 2006 due to high price, technology challenges regarding roaming between the technologies, and the lack of a compelling revenue model for operators. Early integrated offerings (eg, NTT DoCoMo) are a difficult sell, due to both the upfront and the ongoing costs (ie, handsets not subsidised by the carrier, as well as high tariffs for off-net services). To combat the WiFi threat, carriers will adopt aggressive price plans with the goal of drastically reducing the potential savings with the dual-mode WiFi variant. Legacy data networks such as CDPD, Mobitex and paging are fading, and users need to plan for a migration to SMS, CDMA 1.x, or GPRS/EDGE by mid-2005 to avoid being trapped in an expensive solution with deteriorating service levels. Commercial and pricing trends META Group expects a continued 10% to 20% annual price decline throughout 2007 for voice calls, and 20% to 40% for data services. We expect mobile voice charges to be comparable to wireline voice by 2010. Coverage and technology are declining as differentiators, as there are only very small differences in coverage in the EMEA and Asia regions. Quality in the Americas and Australia will become less of a differentiator by 2006, as industry consolidation and network build-outs continue. Operators are changing their messaging to compete on service levels and price. The new 3G-only entrants are competing only on price initially, which drives down the price for services in 2/2.5G networks as well. Mobile data roaming (predominantly GPRS) has improved significantly during the past 12 months, but still has a way to go before becoming nearly as ubiquitous as voice roaming. Jump-starting wireless data is a paradox for the operators – pricing will remain expensive through 2006 (and beyond) due to low levels of enterprise adoption and low traffic volumes, even though data pricing is the principal barrier to increased traffic. International organisations are hurting from expensive roaming charges (2.5x-3x more expensive than in-country-of-subscription use) for both voice and data services. Multinational enterprises should exploit pan-regional pricing plans and aggregate their total buying power across the region (including wired voice and data networks) to get the best deals. META Group estimates that 80% of large international organisations will have centralised the procurement of mobile services and made the ITO (IT organisation) responsible for managing all aspects of mobility by 2006. Although the unit charges for mobile services will continue to decrease, the overall cost for mobile services will continue to increase, as consumption rises faster than the prices decline. Carrier offerings and new equipment make the move to wireless service as the only voice line for business users attractive. This is fuelled by vendors like Ericsson, Nokia, Alcatel and Siemens, concomitant with attractive rate plans being offered by mobile operators for companies that move a substantial portion of their voice minutes over to mobile voice. Most G2000 enterprises will continue to have focused efforts during 2005/06 to contain cost and refine usage patterns of mobile services. The primary vehicle is a well-balanced mobile policy, which is becoming mandatory during 2005. The mobile policy needs to be complemented with solid processes backed up with appropriate tools to monitor and enforce the policy. Bottom line: Competition for wireless customers will drive pricing down 10% to 20% per year through 2007. Users should centralise mobile-service procurement, understand usage patterns, control usage and aggressively negotiate mobile contracts. Business impact: Improved and less expensive mobile data networks enhance the return on investment of extending applications to an increasingly mobile workforce.

Wireless Market Research

1) Introduction to the Wireless Industry.

Mobile communications and entertainment remains one of the hottest sectors in the InfoTech market. More 800 million cell phones will sell worldwide during 2006—making the cellular phone the fastest-selling single item of consumer electronics by far. Most new cell phones carry numerous advanced features. More MP3-capable cell phones are sold than stand-alone MP3 players. More digital camera-equipped cell phones are sold than stand-alone digital cameras. In addition, new cell phones are likely to be Internet-capable, and increasingly able to take advantage 3G (third generation) high speed access. In fact, by 2007, there will be nearly 1 billion consumers accessing the Internet via some type of wireless access worldwide.

The wireless world incorporates a great deal more than cell phones, ranging from satellite-based services and Wi-Fi hotspots to vast wireless networks on corporate and college campuses. The ubiquitous BlackBerry device, with its wireless email capabilities, has seen subscriptions pass the 5 million mark in 2006. Whether it’s through Bluetooth (with about 600 million Bluetooth-enabled devices sold worldwide in 2006), the much faster data transfer speeds of upstart ultrawideband (UWB), satellite, cell phone or Wi-Fi, consumers and business users alike are becoming more and more reliant on wireless-based services and devices in their daily tasks. There is no end in sight to the rapid acceleration of wireless.

There are certain things you can count on when considering the wireless market over the mid-term:

a) Cell phones will continue to morph into ever more complex, multi-purpose personal communication devices (including the growing use of the cell phone as a financial transaction device). Cell phone circuitry will become much more powerful, piggybacking off of the revolution in screaming-fast, multi-processor power in handheld game machines. Additionally, tiny high-density hard drives are now being manufactured specifically for use in cell phones. Batteries for wireless devices will become much longer lasting.

b) Although cell phone markets are relatively established in the U.S. and in major developed nations everywhere, the number of subscribers continues to grow in these countries nonetheless. In the U.S., new subscribers tend to be those on lower-cost plans and accounts set up by parents for their children. Already, more than 40% of 12- to 14-year-old Americans carry cell phones. The rest of them will soon follow.

c) Meanwhile, hundreds of millions of cell phone subscribers will be added in short order within less developed nations worldwide. More than 5 million new cell phone subscriptions are opened in India every month.

d) There is no end to the ways you can make money out of wireless trends. For example, look at the multi-billion yearly global market in downloadable cell phone ring tones.

e) Ever better, higher-speed, longer-distance standards will continue to emerge and be fully developed for Wi-Fi and other wireless network access systems.

f) Security issues such as eavesdropping on Bluetooth conversations, hacking into Wi-Fi networks and viruses spread among cell phones will require more attention and investment from the technology and telecommunications sectors. (Analysts at IDC estimate that the global market for mobile phone security software will reach $1 billion by 2008.)g) RFID (radio frequency ID tags used to track inventory) will continue rapid adoption by manufacturers, logistics centers, shippers and retailers, thanks largely to an early initiative by Wal-Mart to require its largest suppliers to use RFID to wirelessly transmit data from cases of merchandise. Second-generation RFID will eliminate most of the disappointments of earlier RFID implementations.

h) By 2007, about 8% of U.S. homes will have cancelled landline service entirely, relying on their cell phones instead.

Over the mid-term, emerging markets in lesser-developed nations will add about 1 billion new subscribers to today’s global base of more than 2 billion. While cell phone market penetration is at 100% in some nations, including Sweden, the U.K. and the Netherlands, it is only about 70% in America. Sales and subscriber growth will continue to boom in nations with rapidly-growing economies like China and India.

Accessing and transferring data and entertainment via cell phone is growing at a rapid clip. Worldwide, more than $2 billion is spent on accessing games via wireless handsets. In the U.S., there are more than 210 million cell phone subscribers (as of 2006), taking advantage of more than 180,000 cell phone towers that seamlessly pass along calls as users move from one place to another. Built-in cameras are extremely popular with Verizon’s customers. In total, they use data services to e-mail about 300 million digital photos yearly.

Meanwhile, the rapid development of Wi-Fi, the potential spread of longer-range WiMAX and the eager adoption of VoIP all threaten to turn the cell phone and landline industries upside down. Already, the leading cell phone provider in Japan, NTT DoCoMo, is marketing a cell phone manufactured by NEC that works on standard cell phone circuits and, when it senses the presence of Wi-Fi, can switch over to VoIP, wirelessly making calls over the Internet via the Wi-Fi connection. Motorola has developed a comparable phone, and BT recently launched similar features in the U.K. market.

Consider this: Wi-Fi is only good for a range of a few feet. WiMAX, on the other hand, may be good for up to 30 miles. When WiMAX gets rolling, the eventual effects on cell phone service and markets could be profound. What firms will be leaders in providing Wi-Fi and WiMAX access? What revenue streams will be generated? How will cell phone subscription use and revenue be affected? The answers are not yet clear. AT&T and other leading telecommunications sector companies are testing, or plan to test, Wi-Fi offerings. As a result, the competition for wireless customers will become much more intense. Hold onto your hats—it’s going to be wild, wireless ride!

A 2006 survey of cell phone users in America conducted by the Pew Internet & American Life Project found that there is still plenty of room in the U.S. market for the sale of advanced cell phone services. Their survey showed that only 4% of cell phone users had employed their phones to access mobile maps, while 47% said they would like to do so. Likewise, only 8% said they had used cell phones to send and receive email (24% would like to do so), and only 14% had used them to access the Internet (16% would like to do so.)

2005 Wireless Trend

Global mobile trend update 2005     META Group Press Release on ITWeb   Posted: 5 May 2005

The mobile market is maturing and struggling to find a growth area. Basic infrastructure has been deployed in most markets, with some high-speed data capabilities in major markets. Mobile operator consolidation will continue in most markets, and users must scrutinise operators and negotiate contracts with great care.META trend: Packet-switched mobile networks based on 2.5G (GPRS and CDMA 1xRTT) are available worldwide, and most industrialised countries will have 3G (W-CDMA and CDMA 1xEV-DO) built out by 2006/07. However, coverage, reliability and roaming remain challenges, with latency a problem for 2.5G networks, addressed somewhat in 3G services. In 2005, WiMAX (IEEE 802.16) wireless metropolitan-area networks will be adopted by service providers for backhaul and wireless broadband delivery, dramatically increasing local-loop competition and driving down access prices 10% to 20% per year (starting in 2006), while providing an alternative for enterprises interconnecting campus buildings. WiMAX will evolve to support mobility by 2008 and complement WiFi in multimode handsets, increasing available bandwidth to the megabit range; multi-megabit cellular service will emerge in 2008. Technology trends Voice is the most compelling application for mobile carrier networks, and carriers are attempting to grow the market via data services. The trend to leverage mobile voice as the principal voice line is growing among knowledge-worker-intensive organisations. Enterprise adoption of 3G data services (ie, offering capacities of between 200Kbps and 2Mbps) will remain limited until at least 2007. Voice will remain the dominant application in mobile networks until 2010 by volume, and 2008 by revenue. This trend will not change when packetised voice (eg, VOIP) will be introduced in future versions of 3G/4G networks. Even though the business case is unclear, operators have continued their 3G roll-outs in most markets. Competition from other wireless data alternatives will limit the potential for 3G – especially WiFi (2005+) and WiMAX (2007+). 3G services are starting to receive some market acceptance beyond Japan and South Korea, and the vendor hype for a next set of services has begun. Market buzz has already started around High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), “Super 3G” and 4G. While the demand for additional capacity is unclear – users are not buying what is already offered – what is needed is better integration between wireless services. Fortunately, 4G is mostly a collection of services combining existing technologies (including 3G and WiFi) with other kinds of wireless technologies like WiMAX and future evolutions of 3G/UMTS. As a result, 4G will be less disruptive and more widely accepted if the promise is delivered upon. 3G’s remaining problems are more focused on the business case and less about technology. The previous technical issues that slowed 3G’s roll-out (eg, lack of appropriate handsets, poor battery life, problems with handoffs to/from legacy networks) have been addressed. The remaining challenges are mainly commercial (eg, the structure of compelling and profitable offerings such as regional or global pricing plans and flat-rate versus usage-based billing). Vendors are centring on fewer wireless standards. In the 2007/08 time frame, networks will be almost exclusively based on either the GSM evolution or the CDMA evolution (see below). As mobile-operator consolidation continues, remaining entities will have to standardise on one of the two established standards to stay competitive. For example, Sprint Nextel is left with two competing technologies (ie, CDMA and iDen); we expect only CDMA to be supported beyond 2008. By YE05, enterprise-class handsets will generally be dual-mode 2G/3G, with specific variants by country and technology. For the GSM evolution (available in all countries in the world except eight; used by all operators in EMEA, some in the Americas and most in Asia Pacific, but not Japan and South Korea), handsets will support GSM, GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA, operating in five bands (850/900/1 800/1 900/2 100MHz). For the CDMA evolution (used by some operators in Japan, the Americas, China, India and Australia, as well as all operators in South Korea), handsets will support CDMA, CDMA 1xRTT and CDMA 1xEV-DO, operating in three bands (850/1 900/2 100MHz). In addition, META Group expects to see the introduction of multimode phones in various forms, with some versions combining GSM with CDMA, and some combining GSM with voice over WiFi. The GSM/CDMA combo will remain very niche and low volume, as it caters to a very small user population. Likewise, the GSM/WiFi combo will be niche until at least 2006 due to high price, technology challenges regarding roaming between the technologies, and the lack of a compelling revenue model for operators. Early integrated offerings (eg, NTT DoCoMo) are a difficult sell, due to both the upfront and the ongoing costs (ie, handsets not subsidised by the carrier, as well as high tariffs for off-net services). To combat the WiFi threat, carriers will adopt aggressive price plans with the goal of drastically reducing the potential savings with the dual-mode WiFi variant. Legacy data networks such as CDPD, Mobitex and paging are fading, and users need to plan for a migration to SMS, CDMA 1.x, or GPRS/EDGE by mid-2005 to avoid being trapped in an expensive solution with deteriorating service levels. Commercial and pricing trends META Group expects a continued 10% to 20% annual price decline throughout 2007 for voice calls, and 20% to 40% for data services. We expect mobile voice charges to be comparable to wireline voice by 2010. Coverage and technology are declining as differentiators, as there are only very small differences in coverage in the EMEA and Asia regions. Quality in the Americas and Australia will become less of a differentiator by 2006, as industry consolidation and network build-outs continue. Operators are changing their messaging to compete on service levels and price. The new 3G-only entrants are competing only on price initially, which drives down the price for services in 2/2.5G networks as well. Mobile data roaming (predominantly GPRS) has improved significantly during the past 12 months, but still has a way to go before becoming nearly as ubiquitous as voice roaming. Jump-starting wireless data is a paradox for the operators – pricing will remain expensive through 2006 (and beyond) due to low levels of enterprise adoption and low traffic volumes, even though data pricing is the principal barrier to increased traffic. International organisations are hurting from expensive roaming charges (2.5x-3x more expensive than in-country-of-subscription use) for both voice and data services. Multinational enterprises should exploit pan-regional pricing plans and aggregate their total buying power across the region (including wired voice and data networks) to get the best deals. META Group estimates that 80% of large international organisations will have centralised the procurement of mobile services and made the ITO (IT organisation) responsible for managing all aspects of mobility by 2006. Although the unit charges for mobile services will continue to decrease, the overall cost for mobile services will continue to increase, as consumption rises faster than the prices decline. Carrier offerings and new equipment make the move to wireless service as the only voice line for business users attractive. This is fuelled by vendors like Ericsson, Nokia, Alcatel and Siemens, concomitant with attractive rate plans being offered by mobile operators for companies that move a substantial portion of their voice minutes over to mobile voice. Most G2000 enterprises will continue to have focused efforts during 2005/06 to contain cost and refine usage patterns of mobile services. The primary vehicle is a well-balanced mobile policy, which is becoming mandatory during 2005. The mobile policy needs to be complemented with solid processes backed up with appropriate tools to monitor and enforce the policy. Bottom line: Competition for wireless customers will drive pricing down 10% to 20% per year through 2007. Users should centralise mobile-service procurement, understand usage patterns, control usage and aggressively negotiate mobile contracts. Business impact: Improved and less expensive mobile data networks enhance the return on investment of extending applications to an increasingly mobile workforce.